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Next President of France 2017
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Mjacob



Joined: 17 Nov 2011
Posts: 412
Location: Kent - England

Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks James,
I am currently looking at this topic on FB Traditional Astrology Group and seem to have worked out how to post charts from Ipad using an app that works on there. Certainly my initial look at both the nativity of Macron and his return this year do not look promising despite the fact that the polls say he would do well against Le Pen if it was tète à tète in the final ballot.
It is Mars in his chart that could be the clue in my reckoning as he would have to unite different factions to unify the vote but I will consider your ideas no doubt
Just heard Mme Le Pen on the radio. One must not express political opinion here but perhaps our Gallic neighbours may care to follow the example of their neighbours over the channel witn a female PM and north of the border both SNP and Conservative leader both in skirts. Wink
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Mark
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Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 5035
Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A piece by the English astrologer Barry Goddard on the French Presidential election. He predicts Marine Le Pen will win. He gives three factors he uses to assess the election outcome.

Quote:
To make a prediction of this sort I look at 3 things: does the politician have popular appeal; does their chart make strong connections with the national chart; and do they have major transits empowering their charts in the coming years?


http://astrotabletalk.blogspot.co.uk/

Mark
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Vicki



Joined: 14 Aug 2012
Posts: 183
Location: Nottingham U.K.

Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Mark for posting that link.

In addition to what Barry Goddard said :- the directed MC of the 1958 5th republic chart to 7th May conjoins Marine le Pen's radical Part of Fortune and Pars Hyleg.
Her Part of Fortune also conjoins the ascendant of the 1948 Fourth republic chart.

Also on the 7th May (which I'm sure she'll reach) the above mentioned parts will be in the 10th house of the Opening Poll chart I have cast.

The Moon on the day transits from 6 Libra to 12 Libra conjoining her ascendant but then it also transits Fillon's asc. and Macron's 10th house !!

I cannot see her doing badly at all in this election but would hesitate to make a prediction until I have studied the other two likely contenders in depth.
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Graham F



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
Posts: 367

Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mjacob wrote
Quote:
north of the border both SNP and Conservative leader both in skirts.

Well, not very often, for Ruth Davidson (who I think is great, btw, wish we could swap her for TM)).
Graham
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Mark
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Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 5035
Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mjacob wrote:

Quote:
North of the border both SNP and Conservative leader both in skirts.


Graham F wrote:

Quote:
Well, not very often, for Ruth Davidson (who I think is great, btw, wish we could swap her for TM)).
Graham


Actually the leaders of all three major parties in the Scottish Parliament are women. Nicola Sturgeon -SNP, Ruth Davidson -Conservative and Kezia Dugdale-Labour party. An interesting fit with the traditional astrological association of Scotland with the sign of Cancer.

Both Davison and Dugdale have come out as Lesbian and recently married their partners. Without any noteable public fuss I should say. The leader of the Scottish Green party-Patrick Harvey is also gay.

Mark
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Mjacob



Joined: 17 Nov 2011
Posts: 412
Location: Kent - England

Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry for missing the Labour leader in this context. I meant in skirts in a figurative rather than a literal sense for Ruth Davidson but yes attitudes have certainly changed.
It used to be difficult to be selected as a potential MP unless you had a wife and preferably children to remove all doubt

Back to France it looks like now Fillon has lost support the most likely outcome is that in the second ballot support will go to Macron as the anybody But Le Pen candidate but Vicki may be on to something so too soon to place bets
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Graham F



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
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Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello
I've been following this discussion with interest (I live in France). I noted how, in the Brexit referendum and the election of Trump, astrologers (at least on Skyscript) did better than the pollsters and the pundits, and I was wondering if this will be true this time too.

Despite his now being ahead in the polls, consensus amongst you seems to be that Macron's chart is not promising. Viewed form here, I think Macron is a media-generated flash in the pan. I really think Fillon is now out of the running, whatever he likes to think, he's burnt his boats with the arch-conservative, Catholic, moral values electorate that was his base.

So those predicting Marine Le Pen could just be right, astrologically as some have pointed out, her chances look better, and the situation on the ground is very unpredictable, current events can swing things fast. If you want a flutter, William Hill are currently offering 3.25/1 for le Pen, 2.25 for Macron.

Just recently, the veteran centrist François Bayrou has come out saying that the situation is of "extreme gravity", and hinted that he may be planning to stand (as he did in 2012). I wonder if anyone more experienced than me would have time to look at his chart and see what you think, as against e.g 5th Republic, or polling day, or whatever works bet for you. I just have a hunch that, with the left and right candidates moving to the extremes, he could be the only guy who a majority would be prepared to vote for, to keep out Le Pen.

He was born on 25 May 1951 in Bordères (43N12'16" / 0W13'12", not usually listed in the auto look-ups) at 16:00 (so that's probably rounded up or down a bit).

William Hills odds on him are currently 101/1...

Graham
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james_m



Joined: 05 Dec 2011
Posts: 3542
Location: vancouver island

Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi graham,

thanks for commenting and offering up fancios bayrue's chart data.. even rounded off to 4pm, the chart shows a lot of promise here... you are quite good at delineating charts too - so why not offer your thoughts?

here is a simple read - profected lord of pisces - 6th house in the natal chart - is jupiter.. the solar return for 2016 emphasizes natal jupiter as the sr midheaven lands very close to his natal jupiter - going with the rounded off time of course.. for the date of the first round, jupiter in libra is also close to his ascendant degree.. very superficial, but his chances look promising.. would be nice to have a more exact birth time.

do all the folks running for political office in france have to have libra rising? it is funny seeing so many here..

i note in the news today something that has a familiar ring to it with these polls... wasn't it the case the polls predicted no brexit, and no trump? are they becoming contrary prediction tools now?

Macron to beat Le Pen in French election run-off vote - Opinionway poll

Independent centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron would beat far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen in the runoff vote for the French presidential election, an Opinionway poll showed on Thursday, a result in line with other surveys. The latest Opinionway poll, which is being conducted daily in the run-up to the election, showed Le Pen would get the biggest score in the first round of voting on April 23. Le Pen would get 24 percent in this first round, compared to 21 percent for Macron and 20 percent for Francois Fillon, the candidate of The Republicans’ right-wing party. Macron would go on to beat Le Pen in the May 7 runoff vote, with 65 percent to 35 percent for Le Pen, the poll showed. (Reuters)
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Graham F



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
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Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

James wrote
Quote:
note in the news today something that has a familiar ring to it with these polls... wasn't it the case the polls predicted no brexit, and no trump? are they becoming contrary prediction tools now?
Macron to beat Le Pen in French election run-off vote - Opinionway poll

Yes, this is what I'm wondering too.
Graham
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Mjacob



Joined: 17 Nov 2011
Posts: 412
Location: Kent - England

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is a psychological reason for this poll wrong bias but put simply people are anxious to give the right answer. If you paint Trump as the Devil incarnate and Brexit voters as swivel-headed racists then no one will admit to a pollster that they they are going vote Leave or Republican.

That is why we have ballots. In the privacy of the booth you can put your cross where you damn well like
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Vicki



Joined: 14 Aug 2012
Posts: 183
Location: Nottingham U.K.

Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When Donald Trump won the US election the Moon on the day of the election was transiting his Part of Fortune and Pars Hyleg.

On the day of the UK referendum the Moon was transiting Boris Johnson's house of his POF and Pars Hyleg also.

On the day of the 2015 UK election the Moon was transiting David Cameron's house of his POF.

On the day of the 2010 UK election the Moon was transiting the house of David Cameron's Pars Hyleg. He won the election but not with an overall majority, so not a clear cut result and the Moon on the Opening chart was VOC ,indicating this.

On 23rd April in the first round of the French election the Moon is in Pisces transiting Marine le Pen's house of her POF and Pars Hyleg. She will win the first round ( the pollsters are saying this anyway!).
If Fillon is still a contender he is likely to come second because the Moon transits his own Moon and several other planets in Pisces. He looks a better bet astrologically than Macron whose only connection is transting Mars in the house of his POF. He has nothing in Pisces to match the Moon of the day.

On 7th May the Moon is in Libra and both Fillon and Marine le Pen have Libra ascendants! There is a big difference between them though.
Fillon has his Lot of Spirit and POF in Libra on an axis with his Pars Hyleg in the 7th. He also has his North node in the 1st. Marine le Pen has her South node in the 1st and apart from her asc. no other personal points in Libra. If I go by the historic elections, using this method, this would suggest a win for Fillon.

Of course there are other candidates but Benoit Hamon is described as being unelectable and I haven't cast a chart for Francois Bayrou because he hasn't thrown his hat in the ring yet. Fillon may yet stand down of course.


Last edited by Vicki on Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Graham F



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
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Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've had a look at the charts of Le Pen, Macron, Fillon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (the far-left independent), and François Bayrou (centrist, not yet declared he'll run). There doesn't seem to be a time of birth available for Benoît Hamon (left-wing candidate for the Socialists, very unpopular with mainstream of the party; found things that say he's "Cancer asc Cancer", but not chart or times to back that up, so I've ignored him).

And how interesting it is. Sidereally (I use ayanamsa close to Krishnamurti), Le Pen, Fillon, Mélenchon and Bayrou are all Asc Virgo (all except Mélenchon are tropical Libra - Vicki has already pointed out the similarities between charts of Le Pen and Fillon). Macron is Capricorn (sidereal and tropical); James has looked at his chart, I can't see anything to add and don't think he'll win (media generated "panic" candidate for the centre-right establishment), so I won't discuss him either. I think he'll split the far left vote unless he pulls out, but not enough to get anywhere himself.

Le Pen and Mélenchon (19/Aug/51 at 8:20AM, Tangiers Morocco) have Mars partile conjunct in whole sign house 11, on the exact degree of the MC at close of polls of the second round (7 May 19:00h , Paris). Mélenchon's Sun is exactly conjunct Le Pen's Venus in their WS 12th. Mélenchon's South Node is conjunct Le Pen's Jupiter.

I think the final runoff will be between Le Pen and Mélenchon, far right and far left, with Le Pen winning. This would fit the pattern set in England (not Scotland...) and US for a very deeply split electorate, with the inward-looking nationalist camp winning out.

To look first at the natal charts, Le Pen looks to me to have possible "promise": her Asc is 5° from the Desc of the Fifth Republic chart (6 Oct 1958, 18:30h Paris) and conjunct the 5th Republic Mercury; her MC in Gemini is conjunct th Republic Moon. No such clear clicks for Mélenchon. Her Jupiter is in her WS 12th, but ruled by Sun in 11th, so in quite good shape.

Her SR (Asc Pisces, her natal 7th )puts the SR Asc trine to SR Mercury (her natal Asc ruler), which is conjunct natal Jupiter. SR Mars trines natal Mars. SR Asc conjunct 5th Republic MC.

On polling day, I looked at close of polls: 19:00h Paris on 7 May. Transiting Jupiter is conj her natal Asc (the tightest conjunction of the four Virgo candidates, if birth times correct), and sextile her natal Sun (ruler of her natal Ju). Transit Moon conj her nodal axis (SN); Tr MC conj her natal Mars, as I said (also Mélenchon's). Tr Mars squares her natal Jupiter and Mélenchon's natal South Node (which are conjunct); Mars also sextiles Le Pen's natal Mercury as does Tr Moon (so her Ruler of 1, Mercury is sandwiched between sextiles of Mars and Moon). Tr NNode is conj her SR Venus.

Testing Vicki's idea of Moon transiting on natal POF or hyleg (Sun for Le Pen, Moon for Mélenchon), for Mélechon this does not work: Moon opposes these points, either day before or day after. For Le Pen, Moon trines her POF at 6:20 on 7th May. It sextiles her Sun at 23:00h, and is conj her Asc at about 4am next morning.

So I think winner could well be Le Pen, in a second round against Mélenchon. Hope I'm wrong!

Graham
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Vicki



Joined: 14 Aug 2012
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Location: Nottingham U.K.

Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Graham I have just looked at Melenchon's chart and think he stands as good a chance as Fillon astrologically on 23rd April.

Regarding Hyleg. I may have confused things because I was referring to the Arabic part Pars Hyleg (ASC. + MOON- SAN) and not the Hyleg which is the length of life determinant, to which you are referring. The Moon in Libra on 7th May does not aspect le Pen's Pars Hyleg.
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Graham F



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
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Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Vicki for clarifying. I hope you're right about Mélenchon, though I think it will be chaos if either of them is elected (but nastier chaos with le Pen...).
If you have time, I'd be interested in positive pointers you've found for Mélenchon.
William Hill's odds on him are about 50/1 (though narrowing - by same proportion as Le Pen's, interestingly), so if you're sure and are prepared to risk it, you could be a rich woman!
Graham
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Graham F



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
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Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vicki - sorry, I read your post too quickly! I thought you meant Mélechnon has as much chance as Le Pen.
If Mélenchon only has as much chance as Fillon, I think he's lost. Astrology apart, people in Fillon's own party are abandoning him because of the financial scandals involving wife and children, and he will have lost a good part of his Catholic vote for same reason, I'm sure. His programme was already anathema to anyone working class, unemployed, public sector, dependent on benefits or state medical care etc - and that's a lot of people.
Macron is the candidate the centre right/left establishment, pro-EU, pro-finance etc would like, to keep things much the same as now.

And now the centre left has nowhere to go, as Benoît Hamon, who won the primaries, is far left (a bit less than Mélenchon, but latter is a bettter speaker and has a lot of faithful followers).
That's why I think the first round vote could be so fragmented (except for Le Pen) that Mélechon could make it to 2nd round, against Le Pen. The polls favorite (but less and less) is still Macron, and I agree that if he makes it to 2nd round he just could win, centre-left and right voters might vote for him to keep Le Pen out. If it's Fillon, I think too many will stay at home. And if it's Mélenchon, he won't be able to get the centre vote out either, even to keep out Le Pen.
We shall see...
Graham
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