There is a psychological reason for this poll wrong bias but put simply people are anxious to give the right answer. If you paint Trump as the Devil incarnate and Brexit voters as swivel-headed racists then no one will admit to a pollster that they they are going vote Leave or Republican.

That is why we have ballots. In the privacy of the booth you can put your cross where you damn well like

When Donald Trump won the US election the Moon on the day of the election was transiting his Part of Fortune and Pars Hyleg.

On the day of the UK referendum the Moon was transiting Boris Johnson's house of his POF and Pars Hyleg also.

On the day of the 2015 UK election the Moon was transiting David Cameron's house of his POF.

On the day of the 2010 UK election the Moon was transiting the house of David Cameron's Pars Hyleg. He won the election but not with an overall majority, so not a clear cut result and the Moon on the Opening chart was VOC ,indicating this.

On 23rd April in the first round of the French election the Moon is in Pisces transiting Marine le Pen's house of her POF and Pars Hyleg. She will win the first round ( the pollsters are saying this anyway!).
If Fillon is still a contender he is likely to come second because the Moon transits his own Moon and several other planets in Pisces. He looks a better bet astrologically than Macron whose only connection is transting Mars in the house of his POF. He has nothing in Pisces to match the Moon of the day.

On 7th May the Moon is in Libra and both Fillon and Marine le Pen have Libra ascendants! There is a big difference between them though.
Fillon has his Lot of Spirit and POF in Libra on an axis with his Pars Hyleg in the 7th. He also has his North node in the 1st. Marine le Pen has her South node in the 1st and apart from her asc. no other personal points in Libra. If I go by the historic elections, using this method, this would suggest a win for Fillon.

Of course there are other candidates but Benoit Hamon is described as being unelectable and I haven't cast a chart for Francois Bayrou because he hasn't thrown his hat in the ring yet. Fillon may yet stand down of course.

I've had a look at the charts of Le Pen, Macron, Fillon, Jean-Luc M?lenchon (the far-left independent), and Fran?ois Bayrou (centrist, not yet declared he'll run). There doesn't seem to be a time of birth available for Beno?t Hamon (left-wing candidate for the Socialists, very unpopular with mainstream of the party; found things that say he's "Cancer asc Cancer", but not chart or times to back that up, so I've ignored him).

And how interesting it is. Sidereally (I use ayanamsa close to Krishnamurti), Le Pen, Fillon, M?lenchon and Bayrou are all Asc Virgo (all except M?lenchon are tropical Libra - Vicki has already pointed out the similarities between charts of Le Pen and Fillon). Macron is Capricorn (sidereal and tropical); James has looked at his chart, I can't see anything to add and don't think he'll win (media generated "panic" candidate for the centre-right establishment), so I won't discuss him either. I think he'll split the far left vote unless he pulls out, but not enough to get anywhere himself.

Le Pen and M?lenchon (19/Aug/51 at 8:20AM, Tangiers Morocco) have Mars partile conjunct in whole sign house 11, on the exact degree of the MC at close of polls of the second round (7 May 19:00h , Paris). M?lenchon's Sun is exactly conjunct Le Pen's Venus in their WS 12th. M?lenchon's South Node is conjunct Le Pen's Jupiter.

I think the final runoff will be between Le Pen and M?lenchon, far right and far left, with Le Pen winning. This would fit the pattern set in England (not Scotland...) and US for a very deeply split electorate, with the inward-looking nationalist camp winning out.

To look first at the natal charts, Le Pen looks to me to have possible "promise": her Asc is 5? from the Desc of the Fifth Republic chart (6 Oct 1958, 18:30h Paris) and conjunct the 5th Republic Mercury; her MC in Gemini is conjunct th Republic Moon. No such clear clicks for M?lenchon. Her Jupiter is in her WS 12th, but ruled by Sun in 11th, so in quite good shape.

Her SR (Asc Pisces, her natal 7th )puts the SR Asc trine to SR Mercury (her natal Asc ruler), which is conjunct natal Jupiter. SR Mars trines natal Mars. SR Asc conjunct 5th Republic MC.

On polling day, I looked at close of polls: 19:00h Paris on 7 May. Transiting Jupiter is conj her natal Asc (the tightest conjunction of the four Virgo candidates, if birth times correct), and sextile her natal Sun (ruler of her natal Ju). Transit Moon conj her nodal axis (SN); Tr MC conj her natal Mars, as I said (also M?lenchon's). Tr Mars squares her natal Jupiter and M?lenchon's natal South Node (which are conjunct); Mars also sextiles Le Pen's natal Mercury as does Tr Moon (so her Ruler of 1, Mercury is sandwiched between sextiles of Mars and Moon). Tr NNode is conj her SR Venus.

Testing Vicki's idea of Moon transiting on natal POF or hyleg (Sun for Le Pen, Moon for M?lenchon), for M?lechon this does not work: Moon opposes these points, either day before or day after. For Le Pen, Moon trines her POF at 6:20 on 7th May. It sextiles her Sun at 23:00h, and is conj her Asc at about 4am next morning.

So I think winner could well be Le Pen, in a second round against M?lenchon. Hope I'm wrong!

Graham

Graham I have just looked at Melenchon's chart and think he stands as good a chance as Fillon astrologically on 23rd April.

Regarding Hyleg. I may have confused things because I was referring to the Arabic part Pars Hyleg (ASC. + MOON- SAN) and not the Hyleg which is the length of life determinant, to which you are referring. The Moon in Libra on 7th May does not aspect le Pen's Pars Hyleg.

Thanks Vicki for clarifying. I hope you're right about M?lenchon, though I think it will be chaos if either of them is elected (but nastier chaos with le Pen...).
If you have time, I'd be interested in positive pointers you've found for M?lenchon.
William Hill's odds on him are about 50/1 (though narrowing - by same proportion as Le Pen's, interestingly), so if you're sure and are prepared to risk it, you could be a rich woman!
Graham

Vicki - sorry, I read your post too quickly! I thought you meant M?lechnon has as much chance as Le Pen.
If M?lenchon only has as much chance as Fillon, I think he's lost. Astrology apart, people in Fillon's own party are abandoning him because of the financial scandals involving wife and children, and he will have lost a good part of his Catholic vote for same reason, I'm sure. His programme was already anathema to anyone working class, unemployed, public sector, dependent on benefits or state medical care etc - and that's a lot of people.
Macron is the candidate the centre right/left establishment, pro-EU, pro-finance etc would like, to keep things much the same as now.

And now the centre left has nowhere to go, as Beno?t Hamon, who won the primaries, is far left (a bit less than M?lenchon, but latter is a bettter speaker and has a lot of faithful followers).
That's why I think the first round vote could be so fragmented (except for Le Pen) that M?lechon could make it to 2nd round, against Le Pen. The polls favorite (but less and less) is still Macron, and I agree that if he makes it to 2nd round he just could win, centre-left and right voters might vote for him to keep Le Pen out. If it's Fillon, I think too many will stay at home. And if it's M?lenchon, he won't be able to get the centre vote out either, even to keep out Le Pen.
We shall see...
Graham

Graham thanks for all that information. Living in France you will know better how people are thinking. Fascinating.

Now that you tell me how discredited Fillon is and I read that he's being indicted for fraud this week I will go back to the drawing board ! Le Pen to win the 1st round but the 2nd round I suppose it's best to wait until we know the contender and then there's only 2 weeks to sort it out !

Fillon will carry on after blaming the press for his troubles. Only if investigating magistrates start or the police directly make charges will he drop out and then maybe Jupp? be back but right now it looks like Le Pen and Macron
Looking at the ingress chart I still think it favours the populist candidate rather than Macron who whilst independent still looks like an establishment character
Whoever wins the Presindency they have to form a government and I gather that there are elections in June but not sure of the date

The parliamentary elections are : 1st round Sunday 11 juin, second round Sunday 18 juin (very symbolic date, De Gaulle's first broadcast from London in the war, "l'appel du 18 juin"). They usually tend to go in the direction of the newly elected President's party/group, when they're straight after the Presidentials.

The current events around the apparent rape of a young African-origin man with a police truncheon, and ensuing riots in the "banlieues" (council-estate type suburbs) have further polarised voting intentions. William Hill's odds on Marine Le Pen have again narrowed to to 2.75/1 today (Marcon still just ahead but falling, on 2.30 I think).

I still think the run-off will be between Le Pen and M?lenchon, with LP winning. Only chance of keeping Le Pen out would, I would guess, be if Fran?ois Bayrou decides to stand, as I think he will if Fillon stays in the race. Not many people would be very enthusiastic, but I think more right and left wing voters would support him, to counter Le Pen, than would be prepared to vote for Macron - and the left certainly won't vote Fillon. But then God know what would happen at the Parliamentaries in June...

Graham

Graham F wrote:Hello
I really think Fillon is now out of the running, whatever he likes to think, he's burnt his boats with the arch-conservative, Catholic, moral values electorate that was his base.
Graham

I live there too. Fillon is probably burnt now, we know since today that the justice will proceed to investigate on the penelopegate. It will not be "a closed case without further action" investigators said.

Sincerely

My understanding was that if a formal investigation was started then Fillon would have to withdraw from the contest.

Mjacob wrote:My understanding was that if a formal investigation was started then Fillon would have to withdraw from the contest.

Hi,

Well it doesn't seem so sure now. He said he would give up if a formal investigation was started, but now he says the only valid judgement will be the vote.