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Abortion Referendum in Ireland on May 25th

 
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Will the 'Yes' (change -more liberal abortion) or 'No' (status quo - abortion ban) side prevail?
Yes will win
0%
 0% 
No will win
100%
 100% 

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Stellarium



Joined: 26 May 2010
Posts: 97

Posted: Sat May 05, 2018 3:44 pm    Post subject: Abortion Referendum in Ireland on May 25th Reply with quote

In 1983 the Irish people voted by a 2 to 1 margin to insert a constitutional provision that recognised the right to life of the unborn. The provision, formally known as article 40.3.3 of the constitution but more commonly known as "The 8th Amendment" means that abortion is banned in all circumstances except to save the life of the mother.

Over the past number of years, there have been growing calls to overturn this constitutional ban and to put in place a law that would permit abortion without specific indication for the first three months, on health grounds up to six months and to save the life of the mother and in cases of lethal fetal malformations up to birth. Note however that the referendum would only give parliament the ability to enact such a law and the law itself is not strictly on the ballot.

What's on the ballot will ask voters if they want to repeal the 8th Amendment and give the parliament the ability to legislate for abortion or not (so a 'Yes' vote is for more liberal abortion laws and a 'No' vote is to preserve the status quo).

In March, the parliament passed a bill that set May 25th 2018 as the referendum date.

Polls open at 07:00. A chart for this time and date is shown below for the capital city of Ireland, Dublin.



My first impression when looking at the chart was the a 'No' vote would prevail very narrowly.

Why? The key configuration in the chart in my view is the Venus-Saturn opposition across the Asc-Desc axis with the Moon in Libra (domicile of Venus and Exaltation of Saturn) in the 4th house separating from Saturn and not making any other aspect before leaving Libra (some would consider this void of course).

With Venus as the general significator for women and proponents of a 'Yes' vote proclaiming the vote to be about 'women's rights' and Saturn as a significator of the status quo and older people, Venus applying in tight opposition (maltreatment in traditional terms) to Saturn does not look good for "women's rights" to me if that delineation of Venus is correct.

The Moon separating from Saturn and not making any other aspect during the voting period and in the sign of Libra also indicated to me that nothing would come of the vote - i.e. the status quo would prevail.

I see two beacons of hope for the 'Yes' side with this line of thinking:

- Moon in mutual reception with Venus (the people are putting an emphasis on women's rights).
- Saturn retrograde (things go awry for the 'No' side)

But if the approach of Bonatti is used and the 1st house represents the status quo with the 7th representing the position of change is considered, then things get more complicated. Either way, I'm seeing a close result.

I have more to write on this but first I'd like to get other opinions.

I've created a poll with the options but if people could give astrological reasoning for their selection, that would be great. Approaches other than using the election opening chart are of course also welcome.
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Mark
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Joined: 30 Sep 2005
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Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello Stellarium,

I like your analysis and I dont have a lot to add. However, I just wanted to contribute one thing.

Stellarium wrote:
Quote:
With Venus as the general significator for women and proponents of a 'Yes' vote proclaiming the vote to be about 'women's rights' and Saturn as a significator of the status quo and older people, Venus applying in tight opposition (maltreatment in traditional terms) to Saturn does not look good for "women's rights" to me if that delineation of Venus is correct.


From a traditional perspective one could look at this the other way round. Traditional authorities like Ptolemy point out the benefics always support the conditions for life while the malefics are inimical to it. So on that basis the no vote could be seen as fitting for the signification of Venus here ie ''pro-life'' while the yes proposition wants to change the law to make the early termination of a life possible and is symbolized by a malefic ie Saturn.

Mark
_________________
‘’As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity…’’ William Lilly


Last edited by Mark on Sun May 13, 2018 2:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Mark
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Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 4954
Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since we are discussing a referendum I include a couple of links to excellent articles by Tania Daniels which correctly predicted the outcome of the UK Brexit and Italian Constitutional referendums.

I used the same methodology to correctly predict the outcome of the UK vote. Indeed I put Tania onto this approach initially prior to the UK Brexit vote. She presents the astrological reasoning for her predictions extremely well in her blog.

The stay/leave method used by Tania and cited from William Lilly actually goes even further back to Bonatti as a horary method for deciding whether to remain or change our current location.

http://www.taniadaniels.com/stay-in-the-eu-or-leave-it-an-horary-view-on-the-uk-referendum/

http://www.taniadaniels.com/referendum-in-italy-will-the-constitution-change-analysis-of-the-opening-of-polls/

Mark
_________________
‘’As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity…’’ William Lilly
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Stellarium



Joined: 26 May 2010
Posts: 97

Posted: Fri May 18, 2018 3:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your input Mark.

Taking the approach outlined in the articles above and taking the benefics to signify life ('pro-life') and the malefics death ('pro-choice'), here is some considerations.

No or 'pro-life':

Cancer rising/1st:

- Venus in the rising sign Cancer, close to Asc degree.
- The Moon in Libra/4th (ruler of Cancer)
- Jupiter/Scorpio/5th (exalted ruler of Cancer)

Yes or 'pro-choice':

- Saturn/Capricorn in setting sign, close to Desc degree and in own sign, also MC degree ruler.
- Mars (exalted ruler of Capricorn) in the 8th/MC degree sign.

Delineation:

With the Moon and Venus in mutual reception, the people are more inclined to support the 'pro-life' or No position, but Libra is also the exaltation of Saturn so that signifies a close run decision.

Moon/Libra also favours a balancing of rights rather than a complete removal of rights from one side. The constitutional provision the 'pro-choice' side are seeking to overturn is a constitutional provision that recognises the unborn as having an equal right to life of the mother (as far as is practicable).

Venus is severely challenged by an applying opposition to Saturn within 3 degrees, a condition known as maltreatment. Is this enough to derail the 'pro-life' or No side? I think it depends partly on how Saturn's retrograde condition plays out.

If Saturn being retrograde is delineated as a setback or events taking an unexpected turn, then Venus in this condition with the Moon separating from Saturn signifies that the people have rejected the 'pro-choice' agenda and nothing comes of the vote (Moon makes no other aspect before leaving Libra).

Jupiter is in joy in the 5th house and in Whole Sign trine to Venus, although retrograde and in the domicile of Mars which is a mixed indication, perhaps somewhat more in favour of the pro-life or No position by virtue of house position.

What do the 'Yes' or pro-choice side have going for them?

Saturn is of the sect in favour, Venus is not.
Saturn rules the MC degree (perhaps signifying that this is the government -supported position rather than an indication of an outcome as such).
The Moon is separating from Saturn
Saturn's maltreatment of Venus.

The problem is Saturn's retrograde motion. Is it enough to throw things out of kilter?

Additional consideration:

Venus rules Mercury/Taurus. Mercury/Taurus is inclined towards traditional thinking and fixed opinions or ideologies. A point for the 'No' or pro-life side here.

Has anyone any alternative insights on these key factors?:

- Delineation of Moon's condition: (1) Mutual reception with Venus and; (2) Void of course or not making any aspect before leaving Libra have separated from Saturn by superior square hours before polls opened.
- Delineation of Saturn being retrograde
- Delineation of Venus applying opposition to Saturn within 3 degrees (maltreatment)
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Donna Chang



Joined: 24 Feb 2012
Posts: 62
Location: San Francisco

Posted: Sat May 26, 2018 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:


From a traditional perspective one could look at this the other way round. Traditional authorities like Ptolemy point out the benefics always support the conditions for life while the malefics are inimical to it. So on that basis the no vote could be seen as fitting for the signification of Venus here ie ''pro-life'' while the yes proposition wants to change the law to make the early termination of a life possible and is symbolized by a malefic ie Saturn.

Mark


Bingo. I had an intuition this was the best support for a yes vote. Also, when I used Placidus the moon was in bad shape in the fifth, jupiter in 4th.
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