Community Shield Match - Castle Besiegement

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Chelsea v Liverpool
13 Aug 2006
3pm BST
Cardiff, Wales
51N29, 3W13
Asc 25,15 Scorpio

When I first looked at this chart I used my preferred method of 1st/7th with favourites Chelsea getting 1st and Mars. I reckoned Chelsea would win, Mars conj MC and Betelgeuse, probably 2-1 or 3-1.

However, I then discovered Chelsea were the holders of the Shield so looked at the castle besiegement method. Chelsea get 4th, Liverpool 1st. So this time Liverpool are Mars, indicating they would be the winners. L4 Jupiter unfortunately in 12th, but N Node in 4th a point in Chelsea's favour and they did score one goal.

The result was 2-1 to Liverpool.

I'm no expert on the castle besiegement method and I'm aware there are other factors to consider. However, I like to keep things simple if possible and this seemed pretty clear cut without the need to go into complex point-scoring.

Cheers,
Ficina

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Thanks for posting this, Ficina.

I have looked at castle besiegement in detail a few years ago. Started my investigation with great hopes as the method appeared the most complex and best thought-out that I had come across up to that point. I tried to apply the techniques to soccer matches, but couldn't replicate the findings of Brady and Lehman. Which may partly explain why we haven't seen new articles on this for almost a decade now.

I have doubts that besiegement techniques would apply to sports by the way. There is no castle to take over, only two teams facing each other. For that reason I'm not entirely sure that the 1st-4th assignment is applicable.

Regarding the favourites method, you will notice that the Ascendant is in the 26th degree, and it only takes 27 minutes for it to change to Sagittarius. At the beginning of the game, Mars is peregrine, receives no aspects and is separating from the MC. In the meantime, Venus, while also peregrine, is conjunct Mercury, dispositor of MC (general direction of the game) and Mars, and is in the 8th house (favourite's loss, underdog's gain). Furthermore, the Moon (general significator for the favourite) squares Fortuna. So even at kick-off I think the underdog is much better off.

Looking at the rest of the game from 3:27 pm, we see that the new Asc ruler Jupiter is peregrine, in confinement (on the cusp of the 12th), and receives a square from debilitated Saturn. Mercury on the other hand is conjunct Venus, and is in the 8th house. Moreover, South Node is exactly conjunct the MC, applying. The Moon is in better shape, but now separating from the cusp of the 5th (too late), in the house of honours for the underdog.

At 4 pm (start of second half), Jupiter is finally in a fortunate house (although it's the 5th of the underdog, so even that placement could be questionable), but he still needs to wrestle with that Saturn square. Mercury is now conjunct Fortuna, and its conjunction with Venus, now ruler of MC, receives an added meaning (controlling the game). The Sun, final dispositor of Jupiter and Mercury, is in the 8th house (supporting the underdog). This configuration stays pretty well intact until the end of the game, with the added spice of Jupiter squaring Fortuna later on.

In summary, I don't see any supporting evidence for the favourite in this game. Quite the opposite, the underdog should have had excellent chances through-out the game. Perhaps you could fill us in how the game unfolded in terms of the above planetary patterns.
Peter

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Hi Peter,

Thanks for your interest. It's fascinating to read your real-time analyses, especially when they lead to the correct result. I still like to think the chart as it stands ought to be able to show us what will happen. I remember you questioned this before regarding timing and I didn't have an answer then and I still haven't, lol! But it seems to work often enough to keep me interested in doing it. I even won a few quid on one of the other matches I looked at over the weekend :)

I see what you mean re castle besiegement. 4th house is obviously relevant if it's a castle, whereas a trophy or title sounds more 10th house. In any case it can't be used very often for footie matches because the games don't involve a trophy-holder.

Unfortunately I wasn't able to watch the game unfold since it was shown on Sky which I don't have :( I was watching England win their one and only gold medal at the European Athletics instead!

Cheers,
Ficina

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Ficina,
It's fascinating to read your real-time analyses, especially when they lead to the correct result.
Thanks - it's a lot easier to do them after the fact! :)
I still like to think the chart as it stands ought to be able to show us what will happen.
I agree that the kick-off chart will show how the game will unfold frequently enough. The reason I think is that, as in this particular case also, the configuration doesn't change drastically enough in two hours following kick-off. The most significant change is the ingress of the Ascendant or MC into the next sign, which may affect the patterns significantly, but this is not necessarily so every time. The aspects and dignities will stay more or less the same, although house positions may change. All in all I think real-time analysis will give you better results, but of course it is more demanding to do.

Unfortunately I wasn't able to watch the game unfold...
The goals in this game were scored in the 9th (underdog), 43rd (favourite) and 80th (underdog) minutes. The actual times may have been 3:09, 3:45 and 4:40 (typical matches last more than 90 minutes, and the break is more than 15 minutes). The first goal coincided with peregrine Moon - connected by trine to the exiled Saturn - domicile Sun conjunction (the midpoint of which perfects in this very minute), and casting a square to Fortuna - crossing the cusp of the 5th house. The second goal was scored when the MC transitioned into Libra: just 1 minute before this Venus perfects her conjunction with Fortuna. The third goal was scored when Mars, dispositor of Asc ruler Jupiter, perfects a square to the Ascendant (Mars is ruled in turn by underdog significator Mercury). MC also enters via combusta at this same minute.

I don't know whether one could pick these moments ahead of time, but after the fact they are fairly apparent. Which is why the study of animated charts of sporting events is very illuminating.
Peter

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All in all I think real-time analysis will give you better results, but of course it is more demanding to do.
I shall take that as a challenge :D Solar Fire's animated chart feature certainly helps in this respect. I shall look at this weekend's matches using both methods and see what I come up with.
I don't know whether one could pick these moments ahead of time, but after the fact they are fairly apparent.
Well, I guess these things are always easier to spot afterwards but, hopefully, doing a retrospective analysis will prove useful when looking at other matches ahead of time. It's knowing what to look out for and deciding how relevant (or not) it is, i.e. whether and when goals will be scored and by which side.
...the study of animated charts of sporting events is very illuminating
Absolutely! Onwards and upwards.......

Cheers,
Ficina

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I shall take that as a challenge :D Solar Fire's animated chart feature certainly helps in this respect. I shall look at this weekend's matches using both methods and see what I come up with.
That's great, Ficina! I look forward to your analysis.
Peter

Sheffield Utd v Liverpool

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Sheffield Utd v Liverpool
19 Aug 2006
12.45pm BST
Sheffield 53N23, 1W30
Asc 5,55 Scorpio

Although Liverpool are odds-on favourites, Sheffield are the home team so I give them 1st, Mars. Liverpool, 7th, Venus. Debatable perhaps? Moon in Cancer good for the favourites. Mars conj PoF. Moon makes 3 aspects to Jupiter, Uranus and antiscion Saturn. Prediction 2-1 to Liverpool.

Real time:
20 secs - Mars conj PoF exact
24.5 mins - Sun conj MC
34 mins - Jupiter conj Asc
38.5 mins - MC into Virgo
59 mins - Uranus conj IC
89 mins(!) - Mars conj MC

I tried the real time method many years ago but only looked at planets crossing angles. Very rarely was a goal conveniently scored at those times! However, Moon is applying to two of the crossing planets so perhaps that makes a difference? (Mixing methods somewhat.)

Possible but unlikely a goal will be scored within first minute, especially as match might ko late anyway. This still leaves the possibility of 5 goals?? Hmm. Anyway, I guess Liverpool will have their best chances in first half, Leo MC, and Sheffield second half, Virgo MC. I can't come to any conclusions here.

What do you reckon, Peter? Or anyone else care to try their luck?

Cheers,
Ficina

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Ficina,

Thanks for this analysis.
Although Liverpool are odds-on favourites, Sheffield are the home team so I give them 1st, Mars. Liverpool, 7th, Venus. Debatable perhaps?
Yes, very. :) The home team in my view can only be given the Asc when they are favoured to win. One's home is the 4th, so the pitch can be assigned the 4th from the team's house, but the Asc-Des axis is for the favourite-underdog pair.

Overall, it looks like a very strong chart for the favourite: Mars, although peregrine, is exactly conjunct Fortuna in the 10th house. Venus on the other hand is in the underdog's 3rd house, peregrine and receives a square from Jupiter, Lord 5. The Moon in her own sign is applying to a trine with the Asc and Jupiter. Jupiter (Lord 5) is in the 1st house, applying to a conjunction with the Asc. The cusp of the 5th is conjunct North Node.

Nothing much changes during the game with the exception of Fortuna moving away from Mars and Mars becoming Lord 5 and travelling to conjoin the MC. I see no testimony for the underdog here. Not that I'm surprised as Liverpool are title hopefuls this year and Sheffield newcomers to the league. The favourite team is odds-on away from home for good reason.
I tried the real time method many years ago but only looked at planets crossing angles.
Predicting the timing of goals is very tricky, but try looking at house cusps not just angles, and also sign changes not just planet crossings. I prefer using Rational, but Planetary houses could work as well.
Peter

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For the record, odds-on favourite Liverpool (priced at 1.60) could not beat Sheffield United: the match ended in a 1-1 draw. So why couldn't a top Premiership team in excellent form beat a newcomer to the league when even astrological indications were favourable? Let me offer one possible explanation.

Some of you may be aware that I am doing a research project on the scientific proof of astrology. As I have indicated here and there, the verdict is in: it is possible to prove the objective validity of most of astrology's underlying principles with the help of statistics. One of the potential findings coming out of this project is that, at any particular point in time, there are both universal and temporal factors at play. In other words, some techniques work all of the time to some extent, and others only within a given time period but with a greater effect. To get a valid reading of a situation, one needs both types of indications. It is possible that the more intuitive astrologers are able to tune into the temporal factors and, combined with the universal techniques (passed down to us by tradition), can therefore give more illuminated interpretations. This may also shed some light on the objective-divinatory split of astrology so hotly debated these days.

Coming back to this match, it is quite possible that the temporal indications overrode the universal factors we looked at before the game. This is one possibility. Another is that astrological indications are statistical in nature, i.e. a certain pattern would only have a tendency or predisposition towards an outcome, but nothing is ever certain. And so one match cannot really lead to any significant conclusion.

Sports prediction is one of John Frawley's specialties, and he's had his fair share of successes and failures. In some cases he was brilliant and in some others just plain disappointing. I would think that this goes along with the experience of many astrologers when dealing with hard facts (e.g. lost object horaries). The above provides one explanation for this frustrating and perplexing sate of affairs.
Peter

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...but the Asc-Des axis is for the favourite-underdog pair.
We shall have to agree to disagree here I think :) I have been using the 1st for the home team for far too long now to change my method. However, I shall keep an eye on it. As a relevant aside, on another forum during the World Cup, for Germany's opening game they gave the home team/favourites the 7th and the challengers the 1st. They correctly predicted that Germany would win. It would appear that all methods work some of the time.

I've been away for a few days but managed to hear the radio commentary of the last 20 mins and I was willing Liverpool to score another goal - to no avail :( As one of the commentators said, if they couldn't beat Sheffield Utd they would not be producing much of a challenge to Chelsea who are odds-on favourites to win the Premiership again. He did add that it's early days, which is true of course, so we shall wait and see.

One thing I have observed is that when the away team are the favourites, the result is a draw. I won't count on that to continue though!

The 1-1 could be explained by Moon's application to Jupiter and Uranus, both of which crossed angles during the match. Easy with hindsight of course and no guarantee that it will work again in the future.
Predicting the timing of goals is very tricky, but try looking at house cusps not just angles, and also sign changes not just planet crossings.
OK, I'll keep an eye on those. Which house system do you use? I use Topocentric (for everything!).

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I use Sidereal but that's beside the point. If you go back to the chart I cast when I asked if they were likely to win a league again I think you have your answer most uncomfortably there. Look at Leeds United now.

I predict they will but not this year. If Peter you could give me some pointers to how you are working out time specifically I might be able to interpret when.

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Peter,

Your universal/temporal theory is interesting. I'm still trying to get my head round it, especially the "intuitive" aspect of it.
a certain pattern would only have a tendency or predisposition towards an outcome, but nothing is ever certain. And so one match cannot really lead to any significant conclusion.
Absolutely agree.
Sports prediction is one of John Frawley's specialties, and he's had his fair share of successes and failures. In some cases he was brilliant and in some others just plain disappointing.
But was he ahead financially I wonder? This is another way of looking at it. For example, so far this season I have had one successful prediction out of four but I am still ahead of the bookies. If I had set myself up as a tipster, advising on a one unit stake on each bet this is how it would look.

Amount staked = 4 units
Amount won = 9 units

Even if the unit was only ?10, the punters would be ?50 in profit. How this would compare with other tipsters' successes/failures and whether it would or wouldn't validate astrology as a predictive tool I have no idea and it's probably too soon to say anyway.