Failed Predictions of WWII

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A case against traditional mundane techniques

In Mundane Astrology, Baigent, Campion, and Harvey, published by Thorsons, 2nd ed, 1992, Charles Harvey cites the failure of European astrologers (including Charles Carter) to predict the outbreak of WWII in making a case against Ingresses, Lunations, and Eclipses (p. 242). Apparently these 'no war' predictions were made at the Harrogate Conference of 1939 (p. 391). It seems the 1939 Aries Ingress cast for London was treated as a rather benign figure (p. 400).

I have two questions:

Does anyone possess actual presentations made at the Harrogate Conference or similarly published analysis of the time which states the astrological reasons for 'no war'?

I may be reading too much into this, but did these failed predictions have ramifications which extended to the practice of mundane astrology as a discipline in the 2nd half of the 20th century? e.g., Did astrologers rely more on country charts and natal charts of rulers after WWII in a backlash against the traditional Ingress methodology?

Thanks for any insights on this.
Dr. H.
World Class Research in Medieval Predictive Astrology
www.regulus-astrology.com

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Nicholas Campion certainly seems to think Charles Carter was intstrumental in bringing about the move from 'mundane astrology' based on methods like ingresses to 'political astrology' based on national chart data. He mentions his debt to Carter several times in his 'Book of World Horoscopes'.

He cities Charles Carter's book 'Political astrology' published in 1951 as the pioneering work breaking away from the traditional focus on Ingress charts towards national inception charts. Campion like Michael Baigent suggests the failure of traditional methods to predict WWII is what led Carter to introduce this new approach.

I haven't got Carter's book to hand right now but I will have a look over the weekend and see what Carter says himself.

I imagine the Astrological Lodge of London might be your best chance of a record of Carter's pre-war prediction.
http://www.astrolodge.co.uk/

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It seems rather odd that the Aries Ingress of 1939, set for London, having the Sun as Lord 1 of the chart in partile square with Mars, with that ingress Mars in Capricorn so close to the positions of the Moon, Sun and MC of the 1066 chart for William's coronation would be viewed as benign......

WWII prediction

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I seem to remember an amusing account of this in a book called "True as the Stars Above" by Neil Spencer, a popular account of C20th astrology.
Even the Astronomer Royal could see that an aspect later in the year presaged war

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Hi,

I was reading Charles Carter's Introduction to Political Astrology again recently. There is really no need to dig up the the records of the Harrowgate Conference ( assuming they are still available which seems unlikely). Carter summarises his analysis offered at the Conference for his readers.

Its a long quote and I have no access to the book today but I will post up his full commentary next week. I think if people are going to criticise his analysis its only fair to do so through his own words. Its also worth remembering Carter was also looking at the Berlin Ingress too.

Carter's miss

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Mark,

Thanks for suggesting to check into Carter's 1951 book. Without getting into direct quotes from his text, it appears that his main error in the 1939 figure was the judgment that the Sun-Mars square would not be so bad because of sextiles and trines from other planets. Venus sextiles the Sun for instance. He doesn't really get into too much other detail.

The other thing I noted (and this was a general point not specifically tied to WWII forecasts) was his requirement that malefics be angular within 2 degrees of the ASC/DSC or MC/IC axis in order to be significant. In my opinion, this is an error.

Look at the 1938 Aries Ingress for Berlin, fixed sign on Ascendant, so one figure can be used for the entire year.

Mars/Taurus falls in the 1st whole sign house (12th quadrant house). In my opinion, Mars/Taurus is the significator of Adolph Hitler because it recapitulates the same planet/sign placement in his natal chart. There are some other reasons, such as I favor a Scorpio Ascendant for Hitler, but don't let me get off track here.

Note that Mars is also al-mubtazz of the MC.

Anyway, the Munich Agreement appears to be shown by humanitarian placement of Jupiter/Aquarius in the 11th quadrant house of alliances. Note however the Moon, exalted ruler of the Ascendant, separates from Jupiter and is void of course.

Munich was signed on September 30, 1938. That is 6 months 9 days.

Now if you profect the Ascendant 191 degrees, it reaches the Moon. This is when Munich was signed. Remember the Moon is separating from Jupiter; so it wishes to leave a Jupiterian alliance behind. Moon is ruled by Mars/Taurus. Moon is violent and wishes to explode.

Hitler later invaded Czechosolovakia around March 15, 1939. There is actually a whole series of events in early March 1939 which I don't have the time to sort out right now. But the bottom line is Mars at 6TA26 falling 12 degrees behing the ASC of 18TA52 for this figure activates Mars by profecting the Ascendant about 12 days before the 1938 Ingress figure times out. That would be around March 10, 1939 when Hitler instigated some internal uprisings in Czechoslovakia.

The point I am trying to make here with the 1938 Aries Ingress set for Berlin is that Mars/Taurus fell 12 degrees behind the Ascendant. If Carter was looking for malefics to be angular within 2 degrees, he would have discounted this Mars placement. I suggest that Mars in this figure was very relevant, angular in the 1st by whole sign houses, and appropriately set off by Ascendant profections.
Dr. H.
World Class Research in Medieval Predictive Astrology
www.regulus-astrology.com

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Apparently these 'no war' predictions were made at the Harrogate Conference of 1939 (p. 391). It seems the 1939 Aries Ingress cast for London was treated as a rather benign figure (p. 400).


I think they failed in their predictions because they lost the classical use of dignities. I am looking at the chart for London, 1939 March 29, 12:28:30. A perigrine moon, combust, partile conjuction with the MC is a loud/major sign of trouble. The moon is in a sign ruled by warlike mars. The ruler of the seventh house of warfare and open enemies is malefic saturn, fallen in a sign of mars, in the 10th house! Conjunct mercury who would rule war coming through the air. In Regiomontanus houses, the MC ruler Mars is conjunct the cusp of the 6th house of illness. Saturn the 7th ruler makes a partile sextile to Venus who is in his sign right on the cusp of the house of death. And I have not even looked at fixed stars yet which are very important in Mundane work.

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I decided to resurrect this thread because of something I found in Astrologia Gallica Book 25, The Universal Constitutions of the Caelum: in other words mundane astrology. For the record "Universal Constitutions" are things like ingress charts, eclipses, comets. grand conjunctions and not so grand conjunctions. "Particular Constitutions" are nativities in Morin's view, but ironically would include national charts - a technique that did not exist in the 17th century.

I posted this on my Morin Study Group earlier today and modified it slightly for Skyscript. The purpose of what follows is to demonstrate, as others have suggested on this thread, that it was possible to predict WWII from the ingress charts and in fact one man claimed he did it! The purpose is not to impugn in any way Charles Carter or Nicholas Campion or the use of national charts. The point made by the French astrologer under discussion is that with the right traditional techniques, WWII was quite predictable. It will take a lot more work and practice to demonstrate that the techniques involved are always or nearly always this accurate.

Astrologers took it on the chin for not accurately predicting WWII. Nicholas Campion explains this in some detail in his giant reference The Book of World Horoscopes. He discusses the failure of astrologers in this endeavor and their embarrassing (his word) misreading of Hitler?s chart. This failing led Charles Carter to the conclusion that ingress charts are useless and led him to write his highly influential little booklet An Introduction to Political Astrology. From this point on, roughly, at the suggestion of Carter along with his reasons, mundane astrologers switched from using ingress charts to the birth charts of nations as the basis for their predictions.

Campion notes that ingress charts suffer from major weaknesses, not the least of which is that all the planets are the same for all nations. He writes:


?Specifically it (the ingress chart) was incapable of distinguishing between different countries, for each capital city shared exactly the same planetary alignments. Only house angles (sic) and positions varied allowing some difference of emphasis between say, London, Madrid, and Moscow, but in many instances such variations would be slight. (p. 1)
To answer this charge and other arguments made by Campion takes us well beyond the scope of this exercise. National charts have weaknesses, too, as Campion?s book clearly demonstrates. Not the least of which is determining the time of the beginning of a city or state. No one said mundane astrology was easy. His own argument against ingress charts isn?t persuasive either. ?Only? the angles change? The planets are the same, but didn?t WWII affect Germany, Paris, and London in more or less the same way? They were all at war. Still, it is not arguable that astrologers got it wrong. Partly no doubt because they saw what they wanted to see (Hitler as a good guy) despite being warned by people with clearer heads. And most damning, by the mid 20th century, the roots of the tradition had been, if not lost, at least tucked away in the attic as part of an imagined shameful past. Campion?s argument would be more persuasive, if modern astrologers had done much better with national charts than they did in the late 1930s with ingress charts.

In 1938, a French astrologer named Jean Hieroz, made a prediction of war based on ingress charts using the teachings of Morin deVillefranche. I wonder if the astrologers, including Carter, that missed the war had ever heard of Hieroz or Morin. The magazine he submitted the articles to would not publish the prediction. He wrote of his difficulties with the publisher in an article that appeared in a French magazine after the war ended, in 1946. He claimed he had documentation to support his claim of prediction before the events of September 1939. And he shows us the Morin method he used to make the prediction.

Whether he is being fully honest or not, I think the information he passed on in 1946 is valuable. Although the article is short (shorter than what follows), fuller explanations and quotes are needed for those who do not have Astrologia Gallica Book 25. I will also provide page numbers for the relevant quotes for the AFA English translations by James Holden for those who have the book.

The first chart is the Aries Ingress of 1939 set for Paris, France:

Aries Ingress 1939
March 21, 1939
12:28:27PM GMT
Paris, France
2 E 20 00
48 N 52 00
0 Leo 11 rises

Heiroz writes.

?The entry of the Sun into Aries occurs at Paris the 21st of March at 12:29; that which puts the MC at 8 Aries and the ASC at 0 degrees of Leo. Mars, ruler of the Primordial Point [P.P.] is exalted in Capricorn; its ruler, Saturn, is situated in Aries, that is to say in mutual reception by sign rulership with Mars. ??
This is pretty much self explanatory. The ?Primordial Point? in this chart is 8 Aries. A more detailed explanation of how this point is determined is mentioned below. The main points here are that the Primordial Point is in Aries and Aries' ruler is in exaltation and in turn is disposited by Saturn with whom he is in mutual reception. He continues.
?Such a case was formally foreseen by Morin (the 4th paragraph of Chap. 3 Section II) ??
Book 25 is divided into two sections. An American writer would have written the above as: Section II, Chap 3, 4th paragraph. This is page 124 of the AFA edition beginning with the paragraph that starts with the word ?second? in bold letters:
?The rulers of the year should be chosen in accordance with Section I chapters 9 & 10 ??
I can?t quote two chapters in full, but the Primordial point in this chart was selected as it is the angle following 0 Aries moving in the order of the signs. Note the word is ?angle,? not house cusp. Furthermore, Morin notes that it is the degree on the angle that we are concerned with in this chart, not the entire house. The angle that follows the Sun is the MC and it holds 8 Aries. Aries is ruled by Mars in Capricorn in mutual reception with Saturn in Aries (fall). These are the rulers of the year. If you have Book 25, I suggest a careful reading of Section I chapters 9 and 10. We?re now back to Hieroz:
? ? [Thus] Saturn and Mars share the rulership of the Primordial Point. Since Mars is also ruler of the MC, the following angle, to which Saturn is conjoined, it is obvious that the rulership of the year is divided between two malefics.?
Saturn is not one of the rulers of the year simply because he disposits Mars. He is conjunct the MC (10 degree orb). So is Mercury; but Mercury does not rule Mars. Saturn is connected to Mars on several levels, dispositor, received by Mars, in mutual reception with Mars and square Mars by sign. Mercury has no such connections.
?Moreover, that would be very inauspicious, for Saturn is in exile (debilitated in fall) and ruler of the 7th house of WAR, and Mars is in the 6th in exact square to the Sun.?
Mars is not in such bad shape here. He is said to joy in the 6th, but Morin doesn?t seem to use the joys. The 6th is traditionally the house of armies. Having armies joined to the planet of destruction ruling the house of War shows this prediction beginning to take shape. The square to the Sun, Lord 1, in this case, from Mars is not welcome either. France (according to Ptolemy) is said to be ruled by Leo.
?The first aphorism of Chapter 14 Section II (page 194 in the Holden translation) informs us that ?the malefic planets dominating the primordial Point and badly disposed presage some evils. Those will be still more grave if the said planets occupy or govern the angles of the figure (here Mars is ruler of the MC and Saturn conjoins the MC) and extremely grave if they are determined to evil by the places that they occupy or govern, for example if they are in the 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 12th house. ??
Saturn of course is in fall. Mars is exalted but badly placed in the 6th and disposed by a debilitated malefic. Saturn rules the 7th house mentioned on the list of bad houses to be ruled by a weak malefic. So one malefic is dangerous by placement (Mars), and the other by rulership (Saturn). So despite Mars being exalted, he is trouble.

?? (here Saturn is ruler of the 7th and Mars is in the 6th). Grave evils being obviously probable, it remains to determine the epoch and if possible the exact date. In order to do that, we are going to consider the subordinate charts according to the 4th aphorism of Chapter 13, Section II (page 194 Holden) which teaches us that Several simultaneous universal charts (i.e. mundane charts ? tc), for example a Mundane Revolution of the Sun and New Moon, produce the greatest effects, especially if the charts have the same ASC or the same ruler of the Primordial Point.?
Self explanatory: but one more time because it is important. We?ve looked at the Aries Ingress and found some things that look ominous. We need to look at a subsequent related chart to see if and when these ominous things will come true. Two things to look for are if the charts under scrutiny will have the same ASC or the same ruler of the Primordial Point.

The next chart we need to cast is:

Cancer Ingress 1939
June 22, 1939
7:39:25 AM GMT
Paris, France
2 E 20 00
48 N 52 00
14 Leo rises

?Precisely, the second quarter of the year, the solar ingress into Cancer has its ASC in Leo like the Aries Ingress. Furthermore, in it Mars is also the ruler of the MC and is also found to be governed by Saturn (just like the Aries Ingress ? TC). The latter planet is not only conjoined to the MC, but this time it is in partile conjunction with it.?
Notice the use of repetition, just like solar returns in nativities. Leo rises in both charts, the MC is the same in both charts. The ruler of the MC, Mars is in a Saturn sign in both charts. Mars is in the 6th house in both charts. Saturn is on the MC in both charts. We must develop an eye for this sort of thing. These repetitions in the Cancer Ingress will bring about the ominous threats of war noticed in the Aries Ingress.

There is more, but this is long enough for now. I?ll let this sit a bit and then continue. Cast the charts and follow along to get the most out of this.

Tom

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Magnificent stuff, Tom :' at least for me, it was easy to follow(since I've already analized these pre-WWII ingress charts on my own a few months ago on a Serbian forum for traditional astrology :) ). So please, don't let us wait long for your next lesson in mundane astrology.
Thank you :D

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Thanks. I think this is a good time and place to explain some of Morin's ideas regarding prediction. This may be safely skipped by anyone already familiar with his work.

All prediction, natal and mundane, rests on the same principles. There is a base chart. That base chart contains the promise or potential of that which we are looking at. In a nativity it is obviously the natal chart. In mundane it can be one of the following: Jupiter - Saturn Conjunction, Mars - Saturn conjunction, Jupiter - Mars conjunction, eclipse charts, charts for comets, and I suppose he would include, if he accepted them, charts for nations. He calls natal charts "particular constitutions," and charts for mundane astrology, "universal constitutions."

What follows is key for Morin and others I'm sure. He teaches that planets give off their influence universally, equally, and without discrimination. The only differences are shown by the sign the Sun occupies. So the Sun is always solar, but the Sun in Leo acts differently than the Sun in Cancer, but wherever the Sun is posited, that influence is universal and equal, i.e. the same throughout the world, and it does not discriminate. The differences we see depend on how that universal energy is received. As he never tires of telling us, "The Sun melts wax and hardens clay." It is the same Sun however, that does both.

That universal influence, affected by the sign, strength and aspects is called the planet's "celestial state." The house the planet falls in, is its "terrestrial state." This is where the differences manifest. Is the receiving object wax or clay? Will it be well received, first house, or poorly received, 6th house?

These are not just different ways of saying "essential dignity" and "accidental dignity." Aspects are accidental dignity but they are included in celestial state. It is the combination of these things that produces the effect.

Each chart, universal or particular, has subsets of charts that tell us when the promise or potential of the chart will be realized. In natal astrology those charts are solar and lunar returns mostly. One could use eclipse charts, as well.

In mundane astrology the universal chart would be the Aries Ingress as well as great conjunctions. The subset of charts would include the remaining cardinal ingresses, eclipse charts, lunations, comets etc. We look to those charts for timing.

Repetition is the key that unlocks the timing of the prediction. If we see the same thing in the subsequent charts or similar things in those charts that are in the main chart, we know that this is the time period in which the promise of the chart will be fulfilled. In the above example of WWII, the Aries ingress promises war. The Cancer ingresses tells us it will occur between the summer solstice and autumnal equinox. Other charts will narrow it even more and that is the subject of my next post. However if none of the subsequent ingress charts showed us war or a repetition of the Aries ingress, then we could predict "no war" or perhaps minor skirmishes that will not escalate into war. Also if the Aries Ingress shows peace and a subsequent ingress shows war, we would not predict a major conflict only perhaps a minor one.

The potential of any chart can be fulfilled in a negative way as well. Peace can become war. A smooth relationship can become strained. Life can become death. This is shown by the reversal of what we see in the base chart. Using a nativity for an example, Let's say we have Aquarius rising and Saturn in Aquarius near the ASC in a trine to Jupiter in Gemini in the 5th. Although we are concerned about Jupiter in his detriment, we are cheered by a strong ASC ruler and take this as a promise of children. But in an age appropriate solar return (we would not predict that a three-year-old would give birth regardless of how strongly it shows in the chart), we see Saturn conjunct Jupiter in Gemini and Jupiter conjunct Saturn in Aquarius, or worse, Jupiter in Aquarius in the first square Saturn in Leo in the 8th. Both of these indicate the negative of what we want. It could indicate the death of a child or a lost pregnancy, or some other hardship related to a child. There are other possibilities of course and perhaps better examples, but this I think, makes the point.

The repeating of the angles of the base chart is a good indication the promise of the chart will be fulfilled. The reversal indicates the promise will be harmed. This is very broad so don't use it as a stand alone rule.

Notice the rules apply to natal and mundane astrology. Notice therefore that for one person Sun in Leo would be a force for great good in the coming year and for another it would be a cause of harm. It depends on how it is received. Is the recipient wax or clay?

Read this over carefully. Keep in mind these are broad based rules. They get much more specific and that requires a more in depth study. Ask questions and I will do my very best to answer quickly, if I can answer at all.

Tom

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Hi Tom

Firstly, let me add my own thanks for your educational contributions. The question I have (doesn't have to be answered quickly) regards this comment:
The repeating of the angles of the base chart is a good indication the promise of the chart will be fulfilled. The reversal indicates the promise will be harmed. This is very broad so don't use it as a stand alone rule.
That is something that I have noticed in looking at event charts that can be classified as defining moments in the lifetime (maybe a wedding, or a launch of an important business, for example). So recently this has been on my mind. As its a principle that I find myself stressing in the examples I use at workshops, I'd be very interested to get a reference from Morinus so I can have a look at what is said about this from a more traditional perspective. So if you can help on that, it would be great.

Thanks
Deb