Any Mundane Predictions?

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Recently on the thread discussing the Haiti Earthquake one of our long standing members (Kirk) stated the following:
Let's face it, mundane astrology really doesn't work. But we truly want to believe in it. These post-event analyses have been going on for years and undoubtedly will continue to do so. . . because we want to believe. Meanwhile, mundane astrological prediction is getting nowhere. The obvious is staring right at us.


I think Kirk's provocative statement is making an interesting point which is a challenge to us all. I rather agree with Kirk that the bulk of mundane astrology these days seems to be based on hindsight into past events. While this can be interesting it can of course never be wrong. Every technique is as effective as any other in this kind of astrological post-mortem.

This puts mundane astrology in a rather odd position. Other kinds of astrology often rely on their ability to predict events. Isn't it time astrologers interested in mundane put their reputations at risk in a similar way to make predictions? I'm sure some of you are already doing this so it would be good to hear you sharing your thoughts. If you have publicly made correct predictions before please tell us about your successes and what techniques you used.

I would therefore like to invite members of this forum to attempt to make predictions for nations, elections, financial instutions. Equally, if you have any predictions on natural phenomena such as the weather please go for it! This does carry a risk....we could be wrong! Regardless of outcome though I believe such an approach is of ultimate value to the astrological community as a whole.

Thanks

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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Sometimes I also have my doubts about mundane predictions. For example my expectations for the March weather don't seem to have come true, ill comment on that later in earlyl April.

As for Mark's invitation, I've been thinking about the upcoming Jupiter-Saturn opposition The Jupiter-Saturn cycle has often been related to change of powers.

What I see lately is that in politics the left is gaining advantage over the right wing. The French municipal elections were negative for the right, in Italy Berlusconi is losing his popularity and in the Netherlands the nomination of Job Cohen for the Dutch Labour party gave the party a boost in the recent opinion polls. And of course there has been Obama the last year. On the other side populism has also become a strong element in society


So I expect from what I see (interpret) in the world is that people are a bit tired of neoliberalism and the handing down of utilities like health service, electricity etc to the market forces. Obama's recent health laws are a first counter against the tipping of the scales of the market forces, of which the recession is partly the consequence.

Although older roots neoliberalism got a start in the '80s with Reagan and Thatcher and fully boomed in the '90s when many left winged parties as well embraced the new gospel of economy.

Maybe too easily stated but I think it could be related to the Jupiter Saturn cycle of almost 20 years and the bigger Jupiter-Saturn cycle of 59 years.

Early 1980/1981 and further Jupiter Saturn conjunction in Libra. Reagan/Thatcher economic stagnation, expenditure cuts.

1989 Jupiter Saturn opposition, end of communism/Berlin Wall. 1990's economic growth.

2000 Jupiter Saturn conjunction in Taurus. Bin Laden in 2001, growth of China, decrease of economy and start of crisis in 2008. Increase of populism.

2010 Jupiter Saturn opposition, Saturn in Libra. Increase of popularity of the 'left'? More governmental interference?
Does Fukuyama's "End of History" come to an end?

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Hi Eddy,
2010 Jupiter Saturn opposition, Saturn in Libra. Increase of popularity of the 'left'? More governmental interference?
Congratulations for having a go!

I do think its hard to make predictions on political cycles like this as countries do differ so much in their political culture. Even in the European Union there is a lot of diversity. For example the right have done well recently in France, Germany and Poland. Equally, in the USA even though Obama has has just passed his health care reforms through the Congress the opposition to this seems to have revitalised the Republicans. Its looking like the Republicans will do well in the elections later this year.In the United Kingdom on the other hand the support for the Conservatives under David Cameron seems to have peaked. Last year the position of Gordon Brown and the Labour party looked completely hopeless. Now a lot of pundits are suggesting a hung parliament is quite possible in May.

Its quite difficult to avoid cultural chauvanism in such issues and only look close to home rather than globally. For example, what are the trends in South American politics at the moment? :???:

I suspect its probably easier to stick to economic cycles like booms/recessions as these seem to cross political and cultural boundaries.
Does Fukuyama's "End of History" come to an end?
I attended a workshop recently with an astrologer who suggested we would see the end of bland, non-ideological politics with the ingress of Uranus into Aries.
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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MarkC wrote:Its quite difficult to avoid cultural chauvanism in such issues and only look close to home rather than globally. For example, what are the trends in South American politics at the moment?

I suspect its probably easier to stick to economic cycles like booms/recessions as these seem to cross political and cultural boundaries.
I must admit I was being Westernworld centered but still the Western world has most influence on the rest of the world. I don't know much about South-America but in Venezuela most people (the poor as well) are getting enough of socialist Hugo Chavez.

Economic cycles are closely related to policy of countries so they can be related. However I admit that economics have a capricious side.
Steven wrote:David Hernandez in Puerto Rico who has made some amazing predictions and received a lot of television coverage and interviews about his predictions. An example of such a contribution is here: http://imprimaturstellarum.blogspot.com ... nsion.html
I read the link and more on the website and I'm sorry but I'm not really convinced. In my opinion the predictions are both abundant and too vague and therefore prone to multi-inpterpretation.

Same is for Zoller's prediction for 9/11. Although he says some useful things I have my doubts http://new-library.com/zoller/library/n ... 0800.shtml Danger in the West from september on. Another prediction related to the east but Zoller first had mentioned this as 'non-astrological'. I find it too general and furthermore by then Zoller had been concerned about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism for several years, so it might be possible that one focusses on Islamic terrorism. So I'm sorry again, but I'm not convinced.

However, this shouldn't discourage people. I respect any serious effort as well and I too was being too general, looking to general tendencies of the moment and projecting them on some future astrological aspect. Still I think one shouldn't claim afterwards to have predicted something concrete while the prediction is general.

I think I'll probably stick to weather predictions. My March prediction of a while ago was incorrect. When March has ended, I'll comment on this.

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Same is for Zoller's prediction for 9/11. Although he says some useful things I have my doubts http://new-library.com/zoller/library/n ... 0800.shtml Danger in the West from september on. Another prediction related to the east but Zoller first had mentioned this as 'non-astrological'. I find it too general and furthermore by then Zoller had been concerned about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism for several years, so it might be possible that one focusses on Islamic terrorism. So I'm sorry again, but I'm not convinced.
Hi Eddy,

I disagree. I think you are looking at this with the benefit of hindsight following the 9/11 attacks. I think its amazingly accurate in identifying the threat to not just the west but to the eastern seaboard of the USA from September onwards. Moreover he even mentions Bin Laden by name!

This bit is so precise its frightening:
As the next 12 months unfold we will see increased tension in those countries that fell under the path of the August 1999 eclipse but after the end of August 2001 this will take on a new twist and it will be the last 6 months of the eclipse effect that will be the worse.
After September 2001 when the first big crisis will have hit the US we will never be the same again.
If that is not a predictive bullseye what is?

I admit some of the piece is a bit off. I dont know what Sino-Islamic alliance Zoller is referring to. In reality the Chinese have been as threatened by the rise of extremist Islam as the west. Not least in their North-Western province of Xinjiang which is majority Muslim.

Still, he seemed to have got a lot right from just the eclipse path and the Jupiter-Saturn cycle. I wonder what other techniques he was relying on for his prediction?
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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Eddy wrote: As for Mark's invitation, I've been thinking about the upcoming Jupiter-Saturn opposition The Jupiter-Saturn cycle has often been related to change of powers.

The French municipal elections were negative for the right, in Italy Berlusconi is losing his popularity
It looks a very positive trend :)

margherita
Traditional astrology at
http://heavenastrolabe.wordpress.com

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Prediction is very much like "seeing through a glass darkly"
Indeed. Having used several predictive tools: horary, natal astrology, I Ching and Tarot that is always the case. Working with symbolism and interpreting that is never a process where one can make incredibly accurate statements about every detail. However, it should be meaningful and specific enough to be useful. I think Zoller's prediction meets that test with flying colours.

I dont think you need to be an American or living in the USA to understand the historical significance of the 9/11 attacks. Following the end of the cold war there had been much talk of the end of ideology. However, the 9/11 attacks brought home the cultural and ideological conflict between extremist Islam (esp Wahabi sect) and the west. I think historians will probably see this as one of the key events since the end of WWII. In western Europe its also massively increased the profile of Islamic minorities and a clash of values with liberal secularism. For example, the assasination of the Dutch politician Pym Fortuyn by Islamic opponents and the controversy over the Danish cartoons representing the Prophet Muhammed. We have also had the Al Qaeda terrorist attacks in London ,Madrid and Bali. Equally, its become clear this is not just an attack on the west but what the extremists perceive as western collaborationist regimes in the Islamic world.

As I see it Zoller picked up the catalyst for all this very accurately. This is therefore a tribute to his technique. I would love to know more on how he reached such an insightful conclusion.
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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I take it you know nothing of the " Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)" which was founded in 2001? It is a mutual defence alliance of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan's main religion is Islam. Uzbekistan's major religion is by far Islam. Tajikistan has not only a large Islamic party but it has stood forth as a supporter of Iran's membership into the SCO. At present Iran is an observer with India, and Pakistan and all are seeking membership and all have huge Islamic political parties. I think a lot of China's appearances are smoke and mirrors!
Hello Steven,

I confess that is news to me. :shock:

I suppose I was looking at longer terms trends. However, in the time scale Zoller was writing about that is spot on. I stand corrected! :oops: Clearly, an important International development which seems to have passed me by. Full points to Robert Zoller again. :'

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... nt/sco.htm

I see the initial declaration of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) dates from 15th June 2001. Would anyone know the exact time the declaration was issued? I am not clear if that is the operative date or the subsequent signing of the SCO charter in St Peterburg in June 2002. The Charter the member states all signed expounded on the organisation's purposes, principles, structures and form of operation, and established it officially from the point of view of international law.

Of course it could be argued China has signed many International agreements. It does share a common border with many states that are Islamic. Like most states China follows a foreign policy guided by enlightened self interest. For example its recent attempts to sign treaties with many African states over mineral and oil supplies. I suspect China's motivation was similar in the SCO. Not least following the discovery of large oil supplies in Kazakhstan and the existing role of Russia as an oil supplier.

Regarding Kazakhstan Wikipedia states:
Kazakhstan has the second largest uranium, chromium, lead, and zinc reserves, the third largest manganese reserves, the fifth largest copper reserves, and ranks in the top ten for coal, iron, and gold. It is also an exporter of diamonds. Perhaps most significant for economic development, Kazakhstan also currently has the 11th largest proven reserves of both oil and natural gas.
Another factor probably influencing the Chinese was to improve cross border security with these central Asian states. There has been some co-operation between Islamic separatist groups in Chinese Xinjiang and Muslims in the neighbouring central Asian states.

Nevertheless, potential of mutual security defence for Iran from China and Russia raises very serious implications. :shock:

A good reminder that mundane prediction requires awareness of political developments internationally as well as astrological cycles.
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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I attended a workshop recently with an astrologer who suggested we would see the end of bland, non-ideological politics with the ingress of Uranus into Aries.
The end of what???? :-? When did bland non-ideological politics begin?

In 1996 Noel Tyl Published Predictions for a New Millenium. The blurb says he previously predicted the Gulf War (Gulf War II was 7 years in the future when this book was published) and the fall of the Soviet Union. While it is common to state that the Soviet Fall was "inevitable," not one political pundit predicted it. They were more content to lecture us on "peaceful coexistence" and "detente." It only became inevitable after the fact. And skeptics complain about ex post facto astrological predictions. If Tyl did call it, he was nearly alone, if not all alone.

This book predicted things like "The Rigorous Growth Toward Globalism," The Breakdown of the United Nations" "China Rising Star in the East" Japan: Setting Sun in the East," and "Further military outreach will take place [In Iraq] ..."

Trust me he has a lot of it wrong, including a hint of a US war with Japan, and he is years off in his dating of the predictions he got right. He called for US military intervention in Iraq between 1997 and 2000. He said the UN would face a financial scandal and it did with the Food For Oil Program, but it did not break down (although it may as well have) . Again he missed the dates by a fairly wide mark.

Still I have to respect Tyl for going into publication with all these predictions more 14 years ago, and well in advance of the dates of his predictions. I only dragged up the book from the basement just before writing this piece and I can't recall the astrological reasons for his predictions, but he did give them.

Zoller did well with his 9/11 prediction, but even allowing our hindsight and allowing for generalities in the prediction, that was pretty spectacular

I think that's part of the problem. We're looking for spectacular predictions to justify our faith in mundane astrology. There is no fun in making predictions like "The US Will Not Go to War with Australia in 2011," or "The dollar will rise/fall this year.

The other thing we do is take the spectacular events and look at them afterward. I do not believe it is reasonable to expect an astrologer to predict events like 9/11 routinely. It is flat out unreasonable to expect an astrologer to predict "Four airplanes will be hijacked on Sept 11 2001. Two will be flown into the Twin Towers, one into the Pentagon and the last will be forced down killing all on board." The symbolism simply isn't that precise.

And where would we look for it? We can't agree on a US chart and that is the basis for all predictions affecting the USA if we are to follow current practice. And this problem is not limited to the United States.

Few astrologers are paid for mundane astrology work. Like all astrology this takes practice and there is no incentive to do it other than for amusement. Again, regardless of his batting average, Tyl deserves a hat tip for his effort.

Last but not least are the prejudices we all bring to the mundane chart. C.E.O. Carter famously declared the Aries Ingress techniques to be invalid when no astrologers (well there was one) predicted war with Germany in 1938 and the war began in 1939. With all due respect Mr. Carter, perhaps war weary European astrologers didn't want to see it. The one Frenchman who got it right had his prediction refused publication on the grounds that it was too depressing. We'll never get anywhere with that attitude.

And now for a commercial: with a whole bunch of mundane astrology failures dancing like sugar plums in our heads, we might wish to revisit the traditional approach with grand conjunctions, Aries Ingress, etc instead of arguing when the Declaration of Independence was signed, when we will never know that time for sure or if the 1066 chart for England is still necessary etc.

My gut is that mundane prediction can be done, but we're not very good at it, due to a combination of a lack of authoritative techniques, agreement on what charts to to use, and personal prejudices. Let' s get our act together and then get to the trial and error part.

Tom

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The end of what???? When did bland non-ideological politics begin?
That was a bit of a throw away comment.In fairness that astrologer's opinion is probably coming from a basically UK or possibly European perspective.

In the UK I would probably date the era of politics based on spin from the election of the Labour Party under Tony Blair in 1997. In the European Union there is a lot of dissent over the Lisbon treaty and a feeling it was imposed by the political class in many countries.

Overall though I think there is a general malaise in Europe with elected politicians and a feeling they are quite disconnected from the voters. With the end of the cold war the ideological differences between mainstream parties have somewhat reduced. Plus here in the UK we have had the scandal of MP's expenses which has strengthened disaffection with politicians.

However, I suppose this doesn't fit if you are in the USA and have been a passionate defender or opponent of Obama's Health care reforms. Whatever, you might say about US politics recently it doesn't seem bland!

In 1996 Noel Tyl Published Predictions for a New Millenium. The blurb says he previously predicted the Gulf War (Gulf War II was 7 years in the future when this book was published) and the fall of the Soviet Union. While it is common to state that the Soviet Fall was "inevitable," not one political pundit predicted it. They were more content to lecture us on "peaceful coexistence" and "detente." It only became inevitable after the fact. And skeptics complain about ex post facto astrological predictions. If Tyl did call it, he was nearly alone, if not all alone.
Didn't Liz Greene predict this too? I think she based it on something as basic as Pluto conjoining the Soviet Union Sun.
Zoller did well with his 9/11 prediction, but even allowing our hindsight and allowing for generalities in the prediction, that was pretty spectacular
Indeed. Its a pretty Olympian standard to follow. :shock:
I think that's part of the problem. We're looking for spectacular predictions to justify our faith in mundane astrology. There is no fun in making predictions like "The US Will Not Go to War with Australia in 2011," or "The dollar will rise/fall this year.
Yes a lot of people want to be melodramatic rather than let us say mundane. :D
And where would we look for it? We can't agree on a US chart and that is the basis for all predictions affecting the USA if we are to follow current practice. And this problem is not limited to the United States.
Agreed although the USA must be one of the worst cases.
Few astrologers are paid for mundane astrology work. Like all astrology this takes practice and there is no incentive to do it other than for amusement
.

Moreover, some of the very best astrologers may need to respect confidentiality of clients as Steven mentioned earlier. I believe John Frawley has taken on such work for some South Asian politicians.
And now for a commercial: with a whole bunch of mundane astrology failures dancing like sugar plums in our heads, we might wish to revisit the traditional approach with grand conjunctions, Aries Ingress, etc instead of arguing when the Declaration of Independence was signed, when we will never know that time for sure or if the 1066 chart for England is still necessary etc.
I agree a lot more work in this area needs to be done. Still, I dont want to create a bias on the mundane forum towards traditional techniques. I am personally interested in any techniques which people can bring to the table to demonstrate successful prediction. Some quite modern astrologers such as Dennis Elwell have had success in mundane prediction.
Let' s get our act together and then get to the trial and error part.
My sentiment exactly. :'
Last edited by Mark on Sun Mar 28, 2010 10:27 pm, edited 6 times in total.
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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As an aside I am preparing a paper as to why the 1762 Conjunction is so important. It was your comments some time ago that got me looking at it in conjunction with a closer study I am doing of the ancients techniques like Masha'allah and Abu Ma'shar. I believe there is a very good reason why that particular chart is so significant which I'll get to explaining eventually.
I remember Tom advocating this as a while back as a way to look at the USA rather than one of the competing national charts. I think it was first suggested by John Frawley in the Astrologers Apprentice. I didn't give the notion a very warm reception myself as I was rather caught up in the search for the 'real' USA national chart at the time. However, I can now see that is like the quest for the Holy Grail. :???:

I would be interested in hearing your ideas on this.
The other problem is that I don't have the time to look in all places at the same time. The world is a big place and one would have to spend 24 hrs a day in order to keep up with all the earth shaking events. There are some things which help to narrow down regions likely to be more active than others. But what is required is many astrologers in more places following closer their relevant areas. We need more honest intercommunication more than individuals feeling the need to stand on the roof top telling the world in order to boost their own reputations.
To be meaningful I suppose there would need to be some commonality of approach. For example all working on Ingress charts rather than various disputed national charts.
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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Plus here in the UK we have had the scandal of MP's expenses which has strengthened disaffection with politicians.
Yeah we don't have that here. Our politicians don't cheat on their expenses, they have the military fly them around at about 100 times the cost of a first class fare which we pay for then they complain about execs using corporate jets that the corporations pay for. Then there are the guys who write and enforce our tax laws while forgetting to pay their own taxes. Who could get mad at all that?
Didn't Liz Greene predict this too? I think she based it on something as basic as Pluto conjoining the Soviet Union Sun.
I don't know. I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to Ms Greene's astrology. If she, did kudos to her.
Still, I don't want to create a bias on the mundane forum towards traditional techniques.
Fair enough, but we have to go one way or the other: traditional or modern. My point was not meant to say forget modern techniques. I was only pointing out that the modern way of using national charts brings its own problems and I gave the USA as one. While the USA chart has caused a lot of confusion, it is largely the due to astrologers who aren't satisfied with Sibley's chart or rectifying Sibley's chart. They dream up all sorts of reasons for this or that ASC and then having 200+ years to find matching events, find plenty and claim correctness. This does not even touch on "The Moment of Astrology" business. Now the USA chart may be the main culprit, but it happens that we are living in a time when the USA is the preeminent world power. There are probably many nations not as prominent that have the same problem. Then there is the problem of nations that have been around for a long time and which charts do we use for them. Each chart has its advocates. If and only if, the Aries Ingress chart system works better, we will have solved all these problems. It is not time to give up on either system, but it is time to examine them.

My point is that we can avoid this problem with Ingress charts and perhaps we need to look into this the way Carter looked into National charts.

As an aside I am preparing a paper as to why the 1762 Conjunction is so important.
Morin complained about using the Saturn - Jupiter conjunction charts because in his day, they could not be accurately calculated to the minute and therefore the ASC could be way off. This problem was known to the medieval astrologers who noted when the conjunction took place and then used the following the Aries Ingress chart rather than the chart for the conjunction. The joke was on Morin, the tables he used weren't good enough to calculate an Aries ingress either. He never calculated an accurate one in his life.

However, now we can do these things with a great deal of accuracy on a home computer. So once more, I think it is time to look at these methods again.

The world is a big place and one would have to spend 24 hrs a day in order to keep up with all the earth shaking events.
Exactly. When a skeptic says, "Well why didn't you predict this or that?" the answer more often than not, is "I wasn't looking for it." The cosmos do not write across the sky in legible script "Big event to happen next Tuesday," and point to the place.
I remember Tom advocating this as a while back as a way to look at the USA rather than one of the competing national charts. I think it was first suggested by John Frawley in the Astrologers Apprentice. I didn't give the notion a very warm reception myself as I was rather caught up in the search for the 'real' USA national chart at the time. However, I can now see that is like the quest for the Holy Grail. Confused

I would be interested in hearing your ideas on this.
This is the 1762 chart Steven referred to. Fraley wrote about iit in The Astrologer's Apprentice No. 21 (p 18).

March 18, 1762 NS
4:41 PM GMT (NOTE GMT)
Washington DC
8 Cancer 49 rises.

It is true that Washington DC did not exist in 1762, but casting the chart for New York or Philadelphia changes it very little. The chart is used with subsequent grand conjunctions, eclipses and events. Frawley makes a compelling case. If you go to www.johnfrawley.com you can download this issue in pdf format for a few dollars. This article alone is worth well more than what the magazine will cost.

Tom