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Kerry vs Bush
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Taurus7



Joined: 23 Oct 2003
Posts: 566

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 4:51 pm    Post subject: Kerry vs Bush Reply with quote

Will Kerry win the presidential election?

Question asked 11:48 AM, Parsippany, NJ.

To be perfectly honest, I was glancing through the Nativities and horary forum to see if anyone had asked this question before, but I didn't see anything or maybe missed it.

Since I didn't see anything, I asked the question. While the question is not plaguing me, I am curious, with the elections coming up tomorrow.
So I'm not sure if this would be a valid horary or not.

What do you think?

Thanks.
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Violina



Joined: 26 Oct 2004
Posts: 10

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
While the question is not plaguing me...

Since you're neither one of the candidates, Smile I think that the event chart would be much more appropriate
Not quite sure which event chart, should it be tomorrow or the beginning of the campaign? Tom, Deb, Sue, anyone?
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granny_skot



Joined: 20 May 2004
Posts: 1634
Location: California, USA

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hard to do an event chart, when the event is all day. =) but I did look at the fall ingress in Washington DC and ascendent onward it aligns with Kerry's natal chart which I found intriguing and also I looked at the number of positive and negative aspects of each of their charts with the planetary alignments for tomorrow, it appeared to me that kerry had far more positive alignments going than bush. Also Moon is crossing over Bushes sun, that is always a crappy day for me, I dont know if he's the same or not being a cancerian. anyway, my two cents on the subject.

Granny

Leery
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Sue



Joined: 11 Oct 2003
Posts: 945
Location: Australia

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't call this a valid horary for several reasons. One is that you point out that it isn't a question that is uppermost in your mind. Secondly, it is a question that has no doubt been asked several times before by several people probably all with the same level of interest. Horaries of this nature are best avoided.


An event chart would be possible. I would probably take the opening of the polls as the time of the chart in the same way we use the beginning of a sporting event. Obviously the US has several time zones but I would probably take the opening of the polls on the east coast, the first to vote. Of course, you have the problem of several thousand votes being cast prior to this but the main battle takes place on Tuesday.

The most common scenario would be to use the 1st house for Bush and the 7th for Kerry with the 10th being the 'trophy'. It is difficult to interpret a chart where emotions are running high and objectivity is difficult. Astrologers have been predicting the outcome of this election for years and it has become much more difficult as it draws closer.

I would like to see a 'castle besiegment' chart that Bonatti would use for issues of war with the 1st and 4th houses being used. Bush occupies the castle (4th house) while Kerry is trying to take it from him (1st house). Bush is defending while Kerry is attacking. Bernadette Brady has done quite a bit of work on using these charts, particularly in sporting events. Unfortunately, I don't have the opportunity to look at any charts at the moment.
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Taurus7



Joined: 23 Oct 2003
Posts: 566

Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sue wrote:


I would like to see a 'castle besiegment' chart that Bonatti would use for issues of war with the 1st and 4th houses being used. Bush occupies the castle (4th house) while Kerry is trying to take it from him (1st house). .


Intriguing approach, never thought of it that way...Thanks.

Violin, Viola, (Jim Carrey Very Happy ), Violina,
Glad to see you back. Hope you are well.
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Sian Eiles



Joined: 01 Nov 2004
Posts: 5
Location: London

Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A possibility is to use the time/date/place that the polls first open - I know that some astrologers have been using this:
Dixville Notch, New Hampshire (44N52, 71W18)
12.00am 2/11/04
(Asc: Leo)

Deb suggested using the Asc as the nation, the moon as the public will, 10th house for Bush (current 'King') and 4th house as Kerry (7th from 10th).

I'm looking at it now.....

OK, I started writing here, but it is taking too long..... I'll write it up and try to post it later!
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Sian Eiles



Joined: 01 Nov 2004
Posts: 5
Location: London

Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK, so this is what I've made of the aforementioned chart. (Polls open in Dixville Notch, NH, 44N52, 71W18, 12am, 2 November 04)

Leo rising, Sun in Scorpio in third
Taurus on MC, Venus in Libra in second
Scorpio on IC, mars in Libra in third
Moon in Cancer, in second



So, a quick look at this:
Venus (Bush) is strong, in his own sign. Interesting to note that Venus is in the exaltation of Saturn, 'the enemy' (as Saturn rules the seventh house cusp) - this may demonstrate that Bush is more wrapped up in the concept of an enemy than the American nation. However, he is in mutual reception by face with the moon, (the public will), so there is some sympathy for him among the public. Venus is moving to conjoin Jupiter, which seems very positive for Bush, until we look and notice that Jupiter is the ruler of the eighth in this chart - the ruler of the eighth will have a malefic quality even if it is naturally benefic. Mixed indications for Bush, then.

Mars (Kerry) is weak as he is Libra, the fall of Mars. (He, of course, also exalts Saturn - 'the enemy' is also important to him). However, he is conjunct Spica, which strengthens his position somewhat. The third is also a slightly stronger house than the second (where Venus is), as it aspects the ascendant. Mars rules the Sun (ruler of the ascendant, ‘the nation’) while the Sun is in the detriment of Venus, which seems to indicate a possible preference for Kerry in ‘the nation’. In addition Mars is applying to sextile the ascendant. This seems to add up to Kerry winning.

The Moon is the will of the public, and is in Cancer, her own sign, so the public will is fairly strong, but in what direction? The Moon has just passed a square to Venus and its next aspect will be to square Jupiter. I think this just adds emphasis to the aforementioned conjunction of Venus to Jupiter. The Moon then goes on to trine the Sun, the nation, which seems to me to indicate that the people want a little bit more focus on their country. It will then square Mars (perhaps if Kerry does win he will hit some stumbling blocks). The Moon will then trine Mercury (ruling the second, the resources of the nation; and the eleventh, friends, hopes etc). This may describe the need to concentrate on the countries finances. However, this concentration will then be passed onto Saturn (who rules the seventh - enemies), so maybe we’ll see the resources of the US going to their enemies….. continuation of war??

Make what you want of Saturn on the cusp of the 12th!

I think that Kerry may just scrape through, but the indications are not massively strong either way and I am therefore not 100% confident in my judgment. In addition, this is a mundane chart that I have judged using horary methods, so I’m not sure how that will work! Just to make matters worse, I also know that Bush has been stronger in the polls but I want Kerry to win - so all this knowledge and my own opinions and desires make this even harder to judge. Confused
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granny_skot



Joined: 20 May 2004
Posts: 1634
Location: California, USA

Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the Electoral vote inticator at www.electoral-vote.com agrees with your assessment, it has the count as currently 262 Kerry to 261Bush

I enjoyed your analysis, thanks,

Granny
Leery
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Tom
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Joined: 11 Oct 2003
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Location: New Jersey, USA

Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not going to make a prediction for several reasons But the main one is that like most astrologers who are interested in political elections, my biases get in the way.

The Methods

Event Chart: 30 of the 50 states permitted something called "early voting." They don't do that in New Jersey, so I don't know what it is or how or why it is. But it is the beginning of the election as the votes all count the same as those who vote on November 2.

It used to be that the first votes were cast at the tiny hamlet of Dixeville Notch NH. And they voted at midnight. They have 26 registered voters and once they all vote, they count them up and report the results (19-7 Bush), and they even have a reputation for prognositcation. As goes Dixville Notch so goes the nation. But other New Hampshire communities wanted to get in on the publicity so now several towns do the same thing. However, New Hampshire is a geographically small state so the charts wouldn't change much fro place to place.

The other problem is what about non-national issues? For example in one-third of the states there are elections for US Senators. If, for example the event chart favors the incumbant, what does that say about the Senate candidates? It is fairly common for people to vote for a President of one party and a Senator for the other.

Also, the entire 435 member House of Representatives is up for re-election. States will vote for Kerry and send Republicans to the House, and others will vote for Bush and send Democrats to the House. How is all this seen in a single chart? New Jersey is a good example. I think we have 14 members of the House in the 5th smallest state. There is virtually no difference in charts cast for Mahwah (north) and Cape May (south), In those areas voters may send all sorts of combinations of Democrats and Republicans. How do we differentiate to that degree?

Horary Charts: I'm not comfortable with this. It does eliminate all the extraneous offices up for grabs, but if it works the way we think, shouldn't all astrologers get the same result? I have a hard time with this.

Transits to natal chart: This could be the worst method and it is used the most often. Do we use the easy transits to indicate a winner or the tough ones? What about thier personal life? If a candiate has, say a wife or child who is seriously ill, wouldn't he have hard transits at the same time? We might be able to differentiate these from elections stuff, but I'm not so sure. It's a tough job regardless of who wins it. Can we pick a winner simply based on whoever has the best transits on the first Monday after the first Tuesday in November every four years? This makes no sense to me at all.

John Frawley has mentioned the concept of a "royal chart," i.e., a chart that has strong indications of achieving great office. Now if this is correct, and we determine that one candidate has such a chart and has transits, progressions, directions, etc, that indicate he will achieve this on Nov 2 or Jan 20 (inauguration day) and the other candidate doesn't have such a chart, well maybe then we can pick a winner. We are first determining the promise of the chart, then looking at the timing.

This makes more sense to me than the other methods, but it does depend on objective analysis of just which charts are and aren't "royal." It also suffers from the problem of how to predict if both charts are "royal." I do not pretend to know how to do this with any expertise.

Wait until the election is over: This is the most certain method and usually produces the greatest accuracy.

As of this writing 2:00 PM EST, voter turnout is reported heavy. What is really sad is that a heavy turnout in the US is about 60% of those eligible to vote. It is such an important position and carries such great responsibility, it is hard to understand how some 80 million adults, fortunate to be born in a free society, can't muster up enough interest to make a choice.

Heard on the radio this morning: The race is so close it may end up being decided by the "disinterested" voting bloc.

Tom

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Debra



Joined: 20 Oct 2004
Posts: 65
Location: Boston, MA

Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FYI, I have looked at what other prestigious astrologers have said and I have found 4 western astrologers giving the election to Kerry and 1 Vedic astrologer giving the race to Bush. I only hope we find out before January and that the results don't take forever. Confused
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Deb
Administrator


Joined: 11 Oct 2003
Posts: 4130
Location: England

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Wait until the election is over: This is the most certain method and usually produces the greatest accuracy.


I'm currently favouring that method Smile

Thanks for giving your analysis Sian. From what Tom has written it seems Dixeville Notch NH retains a symbolic significance, even if there might be other small towns in the area that vote at the same time.

It doesn't seem an easy chart - very even handed. Like you say, it seems to rely less on who does best as who does worst. I don't like the look of Mars in this chart - in detriment, in its own turned 12th house, square Saturn on the cusp of the radical 12th: that seems like a lot of thwarted energy. But Mars is conjunct Spica and Arcturus - two stars that are capable of giving a great rise or a great fall.

Even though Mars is sextile the ascendant, I’m tending to think that Venus looks stronger in this chart. Agreed, the application to Jupiter is a mixed blessing but Venus is essentially strong and the Moon's application by square is between Venus and Jupiter. This seems to show the public focusing upon Bush, (but that might mean that he has taken centre stage in the election so that many voters are basing their decision on being 'pro' Bush or 'anti' Bush, rather than evaluating the potential of both candidates independently).

The Sun, a natural significator for presidents, is sextile Neptune, so the reality of what is happening is clouded by confusion and misinformation. It’s interesting that Venus in this ‘opening of the polls’ chart is conjunct Bush’s natal Neptune. But if the Sun is giving us a reliable secondary significator for Bush, he could get the support in the end, since the Moon in the polls chart is applying to the trine of the Sun.

For something more worthwhile than my opinions, I’ve included the two birth charts and the USA chart below. There's a lot of interesting connections.
Tom, do you have any idea when we’re likely to know the results of the election?





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Tom
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Joined: 11 Oct 2003
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Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Tom, do you have any idea when we’re likely to know the results of the election?


I fearlessly predict we will know before January 20, 2005, Inauguration Day. Probably we will know in a few days.

It is pretty certain that G.W. Bush has been re-elected, but not 100% certain. The "provisional ballots," i.e. ballots cast by people of questionable legal voting status, have yet to be validated and counted. It looks like Kerry will have to win almost all of them in order to get a majority of Ohio's votes. If Bush wins Ohio, it is over. There are rumblings of legal challenges, but most pundits figure it is a Bush win. If all the provisional ballots are thrown out, Bush will win, too. And if all the provisional ballots are counted, there is no guarantee Kerry will win enough to overtake the President's margin.

Also there are the absentee ballots, but they tend to go for the Republicans. It will take a lot for a Kerry victory, but nothing is certain at the moment.

It seems even waiting for the election to be over isn't infallible either.

Tom

PS although I don't think it is mathmatically possilbe, if there is a tie (269 electoral votes apiece), the election goes into the House of Representatives, which has a Republican majority, and Bush will win there, too.
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Astraea



Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 351
Location: Colorado, USA

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In Robert Zoller's newsletter, the prediction was made that Kerry would win but would not finish his term, with Edwards assuming the presidency; Bush would not only lose, but go down in ignominy. The newsletter averred that this prediction would prove the superiority of medieval predictive techniques. Oh, my!

Is anyone aware of whether or not John Frawley predicted the outcome of the US presidential race, and if so, what the prediction was?

Thank you in advance.
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Debra



Joined: 20 Oct 2004
Posts: 65
Location: Boston, MA

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, John Kerry conceded this morning around 11:30 a.m. Boston, MA time. He is speaking now a few blocks from where I am here in Boston. It's 2 p.m. now. Anyway, crying A lot of us are not very happy today, to say the least.

But on the subject of horary, can anyone find why this happened in the charts? I am very curious. I really can't see anything in the charts pointing to a Bush win. Thanks.
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granny_skot



Joined: 20 May 2004
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Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are correct about not seeing things in the charts, to me Kerry has looked in better shape. My Mother said she read a prediction that Bush loses in December? the author said he realized that the election was in november and was confused by his own prediction, but there you have it.

I myself cant see how the race could be so tight, I can't imagine anyone wanting a president in office who would lie in order to fulfill a personal vendetta that kills thousands of his own people. But then, I dont understand a lot in this world. part of growing old I guess, you find that the longer you are arround the stranger life seems to you.

When I was looking at the planets of Nov 2, 2004 as compared to the natal charts of both candidates, it really seems to favor kerry.

Confused

Granny
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