Nigel Farage to win General Election?

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http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Farage,_Nigel

I am guessing, from looking at the charts of Nigel Farage, David Cameron and Ed Milliband that at very least Nigel will get more of the vote than most people think. Cameron might do alright, but Ed Milliband might be political history.

Maybe Nigel will be inviting David to form a coalition with his main party?

I haven't looked at the charts of the other main candidates. They are probably all in astro data bank. But I can't see the Greens forming a government, especially the way supposedly green energy is damaging the otherwise powerful German economy.

Nick Clegg has interesting chart http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Clegg,_Nick Not sure how that will play out in the next election.

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Hi Fleur,

I am very belatedly opening a thread on the UK General election. We will obviously get into natal charts there but I want to start by looking at more general approaches based on the Ingress, Eclipse and Poll charts.

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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The title of your thread is very dramatic. But despite all the media hype Farage has zero chance of becoming a Prime Minister in May. There are only two possible candidates: David Cameron or Ed Miliband.

I suppose what you are getting at though is could Farage be a king maker and be invited into coalition with the Conservatives? That would certainly be a significant 'win' of sorts for UKIP. That really depends on numerous factors. Not least how many seats the Conservatives and UKIP get. I suspect UKIP is unlikely to exceed half a dozen at the very best though. The Conservatives are far more likely to turn to the remaining Liberal Democrats MPS first as potential coalition partners.

Farage is such a maverick who agitates the Conservative right wing I am sure Cameron would much prefer to work with the 10 Ulster Unionists rather than UKIP if he cant get sufficient support from the Liberal Democrats.

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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Politics is said to be the art of the possible and so is astrology. I saw that Farage had a Jupiter mid heaven (I think from memory ) in his SR chart but it would be rash to predict that he gets the keys to number Ten. It is doubtful that he will even be elected in Thanet South. Radio Four reported from Ulster moments ago. The unionists have a pact not to stand against each other so I agree with you Mark that they should be considered as an important factor in any coalition deal
Matthew
Matthew Goulding

Re: Nigel Farage to win General Election?

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Fleur wrote:


I haven't looked at the charts of the other main candidates. They are probably all in astro data bank. But I can't see the Greens forming a government, especially the way supposedly green energy is damaging the otherwise powerful German economy.
The Green run council in Brighton has a terrible record on recycling but I fear expressing our own views could put us in breach of Forum guidelines. Did Pol Pot write their manifesto? :?
Matthew Goulding

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The Green run council in Brighton has a terrible record on recycling but I fear expressing our own views could put us in breach of Forum guidelines. Did Pol Pot write their manifesto? Confused
I will keep this comment here. Largely as its a perfect example of the kind of OTT political bias I see as breaching forum rules. Although I suspect it is tongue in cheek. I dont want to stiffle discussion but we have to draw a line between analysis assisting the astrological assessment of this election and pure political rhetoric for/against the platform of a particular party.

Mark
Last edited by Mark on Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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I just looked on astro data bank but surprisingly they don't have either Natalie Bennett, the Green Party leader, or Caroline Lucas MP.

According to Wikipedia, Natalie Bennett was born February 10th 1966, Sydney, Australia. Caroline Lucas was born December 9th 1960, Malvern.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, is on astro data bank http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Sturgeon,_Nicola
Last edited by fleur on Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Here are charts for party leaders from Astrodatabank:

David Cameron (Leader of Conservative party)

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Cam ... %281966%29


Ed Miliband (Leader of Labour party)

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Miliband,_Ed


Nick Clegg (Leader of Liberal Democrats)

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Clegg,_Nick


Nigel Farage (Leader of UKIP)

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Farage,_Nigel


Nicola Sturgeon (Leader of SNP and First Minister of Scotland)

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Sturgeon,_Nicola

A very out of date profile of her there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Sturgeon

I cant find any chart data for Peter Robinson the leader of the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) and First Minister of Northern Ireland. The DUP have 8 MPS in the current parliament and are projected to have 9 in the next parliament.

I suspect the DUP will have more MPS than the Greens, UKIP and Plaid Cymru combined after this election so it was really a travesty that Robinson was not invited to the TV Leaders debate last week.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Robi ... olitician)

Born 29/12/1948 Belfast, UK.

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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There was a profile of Nicola Sturgeon in the Sunday Times and it struck me that people who knew her had difficulty assessing her personality. will have another look at her chart but I seem to recall noting fixed signs on the angles
Matthew
PS I guessedthat you had been busy Mark so hope all well
Matthew Goulding

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What i find interesting about Farage's chart is that Uranus in last years Cardinal Grand Cross sat bang on his natal Sun and Jupiter at the time was in his 11th sextile natal Pluto on ASC.

I think it was Mark who mentioned that Farage could well be the new kingmaker as Clegg was at the last general election, i agree with that.
Verum e

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Astrogooner wrote:
I think it was Mark who mentioned that Farage could well be the new kingmaker as Clegg was at the last general election, i agree with that.
I am going to use this opportunity to put down my analysis of the potential political scenarios we are likely to face in May. Apologies for the rather long ramble. Hopefully, this will be of some assistance to the less politically informed wishing to study the astrology of this issue.

Why UKIP and the SNP are not ''King Makers''.

I was trying to make sense of Fleur's post and simply expressing a view that has been put out there by some of the media. I dont personally think it will come to pass that Farage will hold the balance of power. Farage is currently polling second in Thanet South in a 3 way race. So its far from clear he will even get elected let alone be some kind of 'king maker' following the General election. Electoral pundits currently project UKIP getting about 3 seats in May. That is no more than Plaid Cymru or the Northern Irish SDLP are likely to get. Winning bye elections is one thing but winning lots of seats in a Westminister election is a much harder proposition for a small party.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

I also don't see either the SNP or UKIP as 'king makers' because neither party have any political leverage on who they favour as Prime Minister. In that sense they are not choosing between the two largest parties like the Liberal democrats were in 2010 and possibly will be again in 2015. The left of centre Scottish National Party have ruled out any kind of agreement with the Conservatives. Similarly Nigel Farage's UK Independence party are too far to the right to ever be inclined to support Labour. The feeling is clearly mutual.

The only party that might have some flexibility apart from the Liberal democrats is the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from Northern Ireland. But historically, Ulster Unionism has always leaned more to the Conservatives than Labour. In contrast the nationalist SDLP have tended to vote with Labour on most issues.

A Conservative Minority Government or Coalition Scenario

Firstly, of course the Conservatives need to be the largest party to even get the opportunity to try to form a government first. Its quite conceivable Labour could get more seats.

But if the Conservatives do form the largest party they would naturally turn to the Liberal Democrats. Its not clear the Liberal Democrats would want a formal coalition this time. The coalition has had a fairly disastrous effect on their political fortunes as a party. Moreover, it is looking possible the current Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg could lose his seat at the election. If that happens his likely successor Vince Cable is much less likely to be willing to continue a coalition with the Conservatives. Still, they may be willing to countenance a confidence and supply agreement. The problem would be the disagreement of the two parties over the level of cuts still required.

According to Lord Steel, a former Leader of the Liberal Party there is no mood amongst Liberal Democrats for another formal coalition with either the Conservatives or Labour party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31996184

There is no doubt many Conservatives would also prefer a minority Conservative government to another coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

Although, David Cameron personally may still hope to form another coalition:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... aimed.html

So the question then would be could Cameron govern as a minority party? Its been done before in the 1970s when Harold Wilson and later Jim Callaghan governed for a period of time as a minority government. If Cameron was still short of the minimum number of seats to govern as a majority he could seek to run a minority government. However, it could be extremely difficult to put through leglislation through without the explicit support of the Liberal Democrats, DUP and UKIP (assuming they actually win any seats). It naturally all depends on precisely how the electoral arithmetic works out.

Conservative policy would be likely to be opposed routinely by Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru and the left of centre SDLP from Nothern Ireland.

If Cameron needed support beyond the Liberal democrats I think he would be far more likely to turn to Peter Robinson, Leader of the DUP in that kind of scenario.

Nigel Farage is a political maverick seeking to destabilise the Conservative party and break it up. In contrast Peter Robinson's demands are far more limited and localised. His price for support would probably be Northern Ireland being protected from some of the worst effects of further cuts. Not too difficult to deliver as UK governments have economically subsidised Northern Ireland for decades.

A Minority Labour Government or Coalition Scenario

But what if Labour are the largest party? The polls indicate this is quite possible. Or what if Cameron has more seats but still cant forge a workable deal with the Liberal Democrats and DUP?

Labour were politically at a historically low ebb electorally at the last General election. They are stronger in the polls this time. Moreover the way the electoral demography works Labour get more MPS elected with the same share of the vote than the Conservatives.

But countering this is the electoral Tsunami Labour faces in Scotland where droves of its traditional supporters have turned to the SNP.

Under Conservative pressure Miliband has had to rule out a formal coalition with the SNP. But he hasn't ruled out a confidence and supply agreement over key policies. One sticking point is Trident. The SNP like the Greens and Plaid Cymru want to end the Trident Nuclear Submarine programme. Actually, a poll recently indicated about 75% of Labour party MPS feel the same.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/20 ... nt-renewal

But with memories of Michael Foot and Labour's disastrous 1983 General Election campaign fought on a policy of British Nuclear Disarmament Miliband clearly wants to stay clear of such controversial political territory.

Another stumbling block to a Labour-SNP deal is that the SNP, like the Greens and Plaid Cymru have adopted a strong anti-austerity stance. While Labour may not be planning cuts of the size proposed by the Conservatives , Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls has proposed several further billions of pounds of cuts to the Benefit system. I cant see any way the SNP will give even tacit agreement to that.

Labour would probably prefer to try to work with the Liberal democrats. But as noted above that might only be a confidence and supply agreement rather than a formal coalition.

That might not give Labour an overall majority but with other left of centre parties like the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens, and SDLP having around 50-60 seats they could probably get through most of their policies while cuts would be unlikely to be opposed by the Conservatives.

The likelihood of a Labour-Lib Dem agreement will depend on the precise electroral arithmetic of seats for each party and additionally whether Nick Clegg keeps his Sheffield seat at the General election.

If Miliband cant agree anything with the Liberal Democrats he might also consider trying to govern as a minority party.

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly