What I mean by this, is whether there are questions with so many possible affirmative testimonies in a horary chart that there is a better than even probability of an affirmative answer.

Example: I recently looked at a chart where the querent on behalf of a friend wondered if her friend's health problems resulted from black magic being used on her. I didn't get the full story, but apparently the friend had been dealing with latter-day shamans and magicians and was a believer. I don't believe in black magic, but some people do and it can cause them no end of grief. Whether this is a direct question about bewitchment, the health impacts of an obsessive self-fulfilling prophecy, or a secret enemy causing harm, this seemed like a 12th house matter.

To complicate the issue, the chart was cast in Scandinavia using Regiomontanus houses, with the result that the 12th house was gi-normous.

Here is Lilly on bewitchment (via J. Lee Lehman, The Martial Art of Horary Astrology.) I've added to his list the assumption that the chance of a given planet falling into a given house is 1/12 and then summed them. Astronomically this is not strictly accurate with a quadrant house system (as a profoundly skewed high-latitude chart indicated) but hopefully it's close enough.

Ruler of the 12th in the 6th. (1/12 or 0.834)
or
Ruler of the 6th in the 12 (+1/12= 1/6)
or
Ruler of the 12th in the 1st (+1/12=1/4)
or
Ruler of the 1st in the 12th (+1/12=1/3)
or
Ruler of the 8th in the 1st (+1/1212=5/12)
or
Ruler of the 1st in the 8th (+1/12=1/2)
or
Same ruler of 1st and 12th: I. e., a Capricorn/Aquarius combo or duplicate house of one of them. (+1/12=7/12)
or
Ruler of the ascendant combust. Allow 8o 30' orb on either side+sun's degree=18 degrees. 18/360=.05 (+1/20= approximately .634 percent chance for an affirmative testimony.

I recognize that other chart factors could modify the likelihood of an affirmative answer up or down; and that some astrologers would not settle for just one of the above as diagnostic, but would want several affirmative testimonies.

But to my way of thinking, the actual incidence of black magic in a western developed country is probably much lower than the above odds suggest-- even with something like a 1/12 or 1/6 probability of the chart coming up with some kind of confirmation. I would say zero probability, but then there is some chance of a modern magician thinking s/he can apply black magic, and the target believer becoming so frightened and upset that actual or psychosomatic illness or misfortunes can occur: i.e., the self-fulfilling prophecy.

What am I missing?

I can't say without examining Lilly's sources - it's possible if not probable that he's merely repeating something stated elsewhere, so we can hardly blame him personally for "stacking the deck." So far as people actually being cursed goes, I have absolutely no opinion on the subject whatsoever; I simply haven't studied into it enough. I admit that the number of people practicing black magic is probably quite low, but Christopher Warnock wrote an article indicating that you might not need to be actively and diligently practicing magic to curse somebody. See here: http://www.renaissanceastrology.com/amicursed.html

At any rate, it's rare to see a chart with a singular yes/no factor, so as always the astrologer has to weigh the testimonies. Besides, as a believer in horary astrology as a divinitory art, I firmly believe you're going to get the "right" chart whatever the odds. Not to say that Mercury will jump across the Zodiac to answer your question, but I have faith that the right questions are asked and answered at the right time.

waybread wrote:What I mean by this, is whether there are questions with so many possible affirmative testimonies in a horary chart that there is a better than even probability of an affirmative answer.

Example: I recently looked at a chart where the querent on behalf of a friend wondered if her friend's health problems resulted from black magic being used on her. I didn't get the full story, but apparently the friend had been dealing with latter-day shamans and magicians and was a believer. I don't believe in black magic, but some people do and it can cause them no end of grief. Whether this is a direct question about bewitchment, the health impacts of an obsessive self-fulfilling prophecy, or a secret enemy causing harm, this seemed like a 12th house matter.

To complicate the issue, the chart was cast in Scandinavia using Regiomontanus houses, with the result that the 12th house was gi-normous.

Here is Lilly on bewitchment (via J. Lee Lehman, The Martial Art of Horary Astrology.) I've added to his list the assumption that the chance of a given planet falling into a given house is 1/12 and then summed them. Astronomically this is not strictly accurate with a quadrant house system (as a profoundly skewed high-latitude chart indicated) but hopefully it's close enough.

Ruler of the 12th in the 6th. (1/12 or 0.834)
or
Ruler of the 6th in the 12 (+1/12= 1/6)
or
Ruler of the 12th in the 1st (+1/12=1/4)
or
Ruler of the 1st in the 12th (+1/12=1/3)
or
Ruler of the 8th in the 1st (+1/1212=5/12)
or
Ruler of the 1st in the 8th (+1/12=1/2)
or
Same ruler of 1st and 12th: I. e., a Capricorn/Aquarius combo or duplicate house of one of them. (+1/12=7/12)
or
Ruler of the ascendant combust. Allow 8o 30' orb on either side+sun's degree=18 degrees. 18/360=.05 (+1/20= approximately .634 percent chance for an affirmative testimony.

I recognize that other chart factors could modify the likelihood of an affirmative answer up or down; and that some astrologers would not settle for just one of the above as diagnostic, but would want several affirmative testimonies.

But to my way of thinking, the actual incidence of black magic in a western developed country is probably much lower than the above odds suggest-- even with something like a 1/12 or 1/6 probability of the chart coming up with some kind of confirmation. I would say zero probability, but then there is some chance of a modern magician thinking s/he can apply black magic, and the target believer becoming so frightened and upset that actual or psychosomatic illness or misfortunes can occur: i.e., the self-fulfilling prophecy.

What am I missing?

The Philosophers stone !!
What are the odd's of achieving that if you are not a Harry Potter fan celebrating the death of Severus Snape


PD

I am good with horary as a form of divination-- but it is a form of divination with specific rules and principles. Without this methodology, we really don't need a horoscope-- we theoretically should just channel the correct prediction.

Right, pankajdubey. I am missing the philosopher's stone.

There is a valid reason for it to be loaded.
Undiagnosed or severe mental illness would present with psychiatric illness.
The madness of King George III was probably Porphyria.Not to forget the insanity of late syphillis,Tuberculosis etc.

So, if a questioner presents with a sign of bewitchment- it was probably late in the medical stage or something that was going to be incurable as time goes by.
So all those were treated as a group of illnesses of 6/12th.

They are now classified like so:

Mental Disorders Due to a General Medical Condition

These mental disorders are diagnosed when there is evidence they are caused by the specified medical conditions.

includes
-Catatonic Disorder Due to a General Medical Condition
-general paresis of the insane
-interictal dysphoric disorder
-interictal personality disorder
-interictal psychosis
Personality Change Due to a General Medical Condition
+
secondary psychiatric disorder

PD

It depends upon how you define "black magic" and "magic" for that matter. Magic is merely an intense focalization of the will to bring about a certain result. Usually this is done through elaborate rituals etc. but it need not be. Black Magic refers to Magic performed to better one's own self interests. In other words it is Magic carried out for the betterment of oneself as an ego, without regard for the greater good. Therefore people perform black and so called white magic daily with the manner in which they act and behave in their lives and toward one another. If a person is of a weak constitution or mind then they can be influenced by the will of another person and, in various manners, come under their dominion. Witness Hitler and the captivating effect he had upon the German people etc. There is really nothing mystical about it.

Thanks, pankajdubey and Lazarus.

Just to clarify the case study further. The question was something like, "Is my friend's health problem the result of black magic?"

In the case under discussion, this was primarily a 3rd party question, although the friends discussed it together. The querent was a friend of a young woman who experienced a serious physical health episode of a type that normally occurs in much older people, and she was hospitalized. The illness seems genuine enough, although as we've discussed earlier, anxiety over being the victim of black magic is enough to give some believers real tension-related problems, both physical and emotional.

The patient believed in shamanism and magic, knew some practitioners, and thought that they might be trying to harm her (for motives unclear to me.) So I suppose, Lazarus, that this could be interpreted as the "magicians" trying to better their own situations-- but more directly the patient feared they meant to badly harm her by causing her illness.

As I mentioned above, I don't believe in magic in any supernatural sense. To me, there is a lot of everyday good magic in my life, like the beauty of nature. But with so much distress in the horary situation, I wanted to treat the individuals with some sensitivity.

What interested me about the case study, after reviewing Lilly's considerations, is that in my (hopefully rational) thinking, the actual chances of a serious illness being caused by black magic was about nil-- yet summing a rough arithmetic of Lilly's indicators suggested that the odds could be closer to 2 out of 3. This goes beyond 17th century people believing in witchcraft, and is more about the relatively high probability of witchcraft being concluded simply due to the number of affirmative testimonies.

Isn't your question really whether Regiomontanus houses work in extreme northern latitudes? You hinted at that yourself, that when the 12th house is so large, the chances of a planet being in it goes up. I think the matter of which house system to use is underlying your question.

Using Regiomontanus houses in the far north will skew any chart towards the 12th and 6th houses. That would mean that all those Swedes, Scots and Russians would tend to be sickly, suicidal, in prison or social loners. Whether they are or not is a less complicated question than what house system is best.

This explanation is plausible, as noted in my OP. But then within Lilly's own England, a lot of northerly locations can also give skewed houses at certain times with quadrant house systems. Also, with skewed houses, the 12th isn't always the largest.

My question is more along the lines of whether Lilly gave so many potentially affirmative testimonies that they tended to "stack the deck."