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The US Presidential election of 2016
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Mark
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Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:10 pm    Post subject: The US Presidential election of 2016 Reply with quote

I have decided to open this general thread on the US Presidential election which takes place on November 8th 2016.

We have had extensive discussion the Republican candidate Donald Trump and his prospects on this older thread that looked exclusively at him:
http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=9001

However, now that Hillary Clinton looks almost certain to have enough delegates to be the Democratic nominee this week I think its time to focus in on these two key players. I know Bernie Sanders supporters haven't given up hope but rationally I dont hold out much chance for Sanders.

To start us off I am offering a link to a piece by Nina Gryphon predicting the outcome of the 2016 election. Nina uses the Aries ingress for 2016 (she excludes other ingressses in her approach).

This method doesn't require natal data for either candidate since it simply assesses the prospects of the political parties. In this approach the incumbent party is assigned the 10th house and the challenging party is assigned the 4th house.

http://www.ninagryphon.com/astrology-of-the-2016-presidential-election/

Mark
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Stellarium



Joined: 26 May 2010
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Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Head-to-head match-ups between Trump and Clinton have been hamstrung by uncertainty over Hillary Clinton's birth time.

For the 2008 election, Dr H of Regulus Astrology rectified Hillary Clinton's chart and came up with a time of 10:53 pm:



Could this be correct?

Let's have a look at a number of key natal configurations:

Moon/Aries/MC/9th ruling the 12th of Evil Spirit (secrecy, mistakes, imprisonment and similar bad stuff) and ruled by Mars/Leo/1st - anything that matches here?

Volatile temper and "hard charging" personality?. Check.

Plays by her own rules, plays hard and fast with the rules. Check.

Penchant for secrecy. Check.

Said to have "worn the pants" in the relationship with Bill. Check.

Reputation as a "war hawk" or "war monger" and voted for war in Iraq. Check.

Secretary of State. Check.

Scorpio stellium of Sun, Mercury and Venus with the South Node in the 4th house.
Key to understanding this configuration is delineating the 4th house as husband's career as the 4th is the 10th from the 7th. Her life purpose (Asc ruler - Sun Scorpio) has to a large extent been to aggressively and ruthlessly push and support her husband (and herself by extension) in their quest for advancement and power.
Mercury is a very troublesome influence. It's the main source of most her scandals (Filegate, Travelgate, Email scandal, Whitewater) and deserved reputation for not being honest or trustworthy. I'll show below how negative Mercury has been during notable periods in her life.
Venus/Scorpio speaks of her husband's infidelities and is also connected to dubious financial dealings.

The time lord technique known as 'Zodiacal Releasing from Spirit' (ZRS) shown on the right of the chart also hits the spot at key points of her life, in particular the remarkable timing of Aquarius/Leo period:

**August 1974** - moved to Arkansas and married Bill Clinton in 1975 (ZRS Changeover at L1 to Aquarius/7th in June 7, 1974).

**October 3, 1991** - Bill Clinton announces he will run for President and commences his ultimately successful campaign. Hillary is key to his success, infamously appearing with him in a joint interview on national television in 1992 to try and quash an accusations of infidelity levelled against her husband. (ZRS Loosing of the Bond, darkness to light (Leo to Aquarius) in October 6, 1991).

Below are notable periods of good, bad and mixed fortune in the life of Hillary Clinton to date. (-) means a period that would generally be considered negative and (+) means a positive period. Shown at the end of each item on the list is the ZRS periods at L1 and L2 in parantheses.

(+): November 1978 - 1979: Bill Clinton wins election as Governor. Hillary Clinton becomes first lady of Arkansas. Hillary Clinton makes massive profits with questionable cattle futures trading. She becomes first female partner of venerable Rose Law Firm (Aquarius-Aries[up to February 1979] and Aquarius-Taurus[Feb-Oct '79].

(-): November 4, 1980: Bill Clinton loses re-election campaign for Governor of Arkansas. (Aquarius-Gemini)

(-): July 15, 1987: Bill Clinton aborted run for President in '88 due to concerns over the potential for marital infidelities to sink his campaign. Reportedly a difficult period for the Clinton's marriage. (Aquarius-Scorpio).

[+): October 3, 1991: See above. Husband win's presidency, she becomes first lady. Political warfare with Republicans and critics in media. In general, a period of major success with difficulties (Leo-Leo).

(-): 1993 - 1994: Very difficult period after inauguration as her friend and lawyer Vince Foster commits suicide in March 1993, her healthcare reform plan is defeated and a number of scandals get going (Whitewater, Filegate, Travelgate). Ongoing political warfare with political opponents. Republicans sweep control of Congress in November 1994 mid-term election in a repudiation by the electorate of the Clinton Administration. (Leo-Virgo).

(-): 1995: Bill's political fortune's begin to improve but he commences and affair with Monica Lewinsky in November of that year. (Leo-Scorpio).

(+): November 1996: Bill Clinton re-elected President. (Leo-Sagittarius).

(-) January 1998: Lewinsky scandal breaks and runs for over a year as Bill is impeached by the House and acquitted by the Senate. (Leo-Capricorn).

(+): 2000: Hillary runs for and wins a United States Senate seat in New York. The couple leave the White House on January 20, 2001. (Leo-Aquarius).

(-): 2007 - June 2008: Hillary Clinton is defeated by Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. She formally concedes on June 7, 2008. (Pisces-Gemini).

(+/-): February 2009: Appointed Secretary of State. Makes major mistake by setting up her own email system to conceal her emails from public scrutiny, breaking rules and possibly laws. This will come back to haunt her in 2015 and 2016. (Pisces-Cancer).

(-): September 2012 to February 2013: Benghazi attack, criticised for her response, health difficulties restrict her activity (fall, blood clot in head). (Pisces-Virgo).

(-): Early 2015: Announces run for President, dogged by scandal and controversy, most notably over emails. (Pisces-Scorpio)

-----

So what is the takeaway message of all of this that is relevant to the 2016 election?

- Periods ruled by Mercury are very difficult and result in political and personal defeats and disappointments.

This is due to the wretched state of natal Mercury ruling the 11th of politics and 2nd of income. Such costly campaigns and political defeats were also financially damaging. Hillary is also a "pay-to-play" style of politician, as befitting someone with such a connection between the 11th and 2nd houses and strong malefic influence on significators of the soul (Mercury/Scorpio, Moon/Aries ruling 12th of evil spirit).

- Aries-Leo periods give success with much difficulty and political trench warfare.

- Taurus periods are positive for advancement, but there may be dubious financial dealings.

- Scorpio periods are difficult


I would say that her current period of Aries-Aries and Aries-Taurus from January 22, 2017 (two days after inauguration day!) is most similar to the 1978-1979 period with a role reversal for the power couple (in that that it is her coming to the fore (Moon/Aries/9th/MC ruler by Mars/Leo/1st) rather than her husband (Aquarius/7th) who is in the support role on this occasion).

And what about Donald Trump? Enough has been written about him in the other thread linked to in the OP and I have little to add.

I'll just note that there is a major change coming for him in late 2017 due to the ZRS loosing of the bond in December 2017 from darkness to light (Cancer to Capricorn L1). I don't believe this is consistent with him being President in 2017. It likely means he slinks into relative obscurity and has much less public visibility.

With both Clinton and Trump having Mars/Leo in the Ascendant and the Aries ingress linked to in the OP showing Mars/Sagittarius on the Ascendant (with Saturn nearby), this is likely going to be one of the most nasty and volatile presidential elections since 1968.
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zoidsoft



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Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wrote this a couple of months ago:

http://www.astrology-x-files.com/x-files/election2016.html

I tend to favor the 8 am time (shortly after) for Hillary Clinton.
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waybread



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Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 11:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark, I'm glad you started this thread, and hope to post some ideas during the next day or so.

But Stellarium, I hope it will be possible to take a more objective look at the candidates, Clinton included. During the past months, I've done a lot of research on the negative allegations about her, and most of them do not hold up. I am not saying you're like this, but there is a lot of Hillary-hating going around, and astrologers are not exempt. I'd rather we looked at facts about the candidates vs. gossip or character smears.

I think we can agree that Clinton is a polarizing figure, and that she has attracted a lot of negativity; but we need to do some research to learn whether the negativity is justified or based upon rumour circulated by her detractors.

In "my" astrology, a horoscope shows a potential. To the extent that there is some destiny in it, the destiny is loose and flexible within the confines of the horoscope data bytes' core meanings. So it's hard to say that a given horoscope placement ipso facto demonstrates why someone we dislike is actually such a rotten person.

I've been using the 8:00 am birth time for Clinton (Rodden DD) but even with another rectification, the major feature of Clinton's chart seems to be her Leo (Pluto) Saturn and Mars conjunction. People born in 1947 had Pluto conjunct Saturn, but some of them had a faster-moving planet in the mix. Then the Leo planets square Clinton's personal planets in Scorpio, and possibly her ascendant.

This is a very strong and difficult mix, but we need to consider whether the squares indicate a troubled individual or a merely ambitious one; and how people feel about an ambitious women running for president.

Mark, I'll post some thoughts further on how Clinton's chart matches up with election day. A start time and date is a bit trickier than something like 8:00 am EST, however, because some states allow early voting. Then constitutionally the Electoral College determines the next president, not the direct popular vote.
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waybread



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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 5:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We could stick with November 8 for the official election day, but actually 34 states permit early voting of some description, by mail or in person. https://www.usvotefoundation.org/vote/state-elections/state-election-dates-deadlines.htm

Usually the opening date for early voting varies by state, but in some states it varies by county. The earliest date I found was for Illinois, Sept. 29th, with elections for most of the early-voting states scattered around October. This might make the starting point of the election 8:00 am CST, when County Clerks offices tend to open.

I liked the simplicity of the Gryphon article, however, because if you use the Aries ingress, maybe you can just skip the messiness of the actual "birth" date and time of the 2016 general election. My problem with it, however, is the "one size fits all" approach. Presumably other elections around the world will happen in 2016: would they all have the same result for the party in power?
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Mark
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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waybread wrote:
Quote:
Mark, I'm glad you started this thread, and hope to post some ideas during the next day or so.


Thats good. Once the UK referendum is over I will be concentrating on this thread more myself too.

Waybread wrote:
Quote:
But Stellarium, I hope it will be possible to take a more objective look at the candidates, Clinton included. During the past months, I've done a lot of research on the negative allegations about her, and most of them do not hold up. I am not saying you're like this, but there is a lot of Hillary-hating going around, and astrologers are not exempt. I'd rather we looked at facts about the candidates vs. gossip or character smears.


I understand in an election year feelings can be very polarised. Both Trump and Clinton have some serious flaws most would agree. Its up to American voters to decide which is the lesser of two evils.

Quote:
I think we can agree that Clinton is a polarizing figure, and that she has attracted a lot of negativity; but we need to do some research to learn whether the negativity is justified or based upon rumour circulated by her detractors.


I would rather we didn't even try to resolve such contentious questions on these pages. I have seen some American mundane astrology pages become completely dominated by criticisms of Trump or Clinton. I dont think we can hope to resolve such questions on an astrology board.

Waybread wrote:
Quote:
In "my" astrology, a horoscope shows a potential. To the extent that there is some destiny in it, the destiny is loose and flexible within the confines of the horoscope data bytes' core meanings. So it's hard to say that a given horoscope placement ipso facto demonstrates why someone we dislike is actually such a rotten person.


I guess as Clinton and Trump are mature adults who have been through two saturn returns most people feel comfortable attributing characteristics to their charts.

Waybread wrote:
Quote:
I've been using the 8:00 am birth time for Clinton (Rodden DD)


The two conflicting sources for her birth are around 8.00am or 8.00pm. However, most of those doing the rectification work on her chart have settled on the AM Scorpio rising chart as more likely. There are also more sources to support this time. I dont know what Regulus Astrology based his rectification on. But I dont see any sources supporting it.

Waybread wrote:
Quote:
Mark, I'll post some thoughts further on how Clinton's chart matches up with election day.

Thanks looking forward to your insights.

Waybread wrote:
Quote:
We could stick with November 8 for the official election day, but actually 34 states permit early voting of some description, by mail or in person. https://www.usvotefoundation.org/vote/state-elections/state-election-dates-deadlines.htm

Usually the opening date for early voting varies by state, but in some states it varies by county. The earliest date I found was for Illinois, Sept. 29th, with elections for most of the early-voting states scattered around October. This might make the starting point of the election 8:00 am CST, when County Clerks offices tend to open.


Very interesting Waybread! I didn't know this. I am aware several astrologers still use Dixville Notch, New Hamshire as the opening of polls. Its famous for being the first location to start polling at midnight on election day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire

But if people are voting in polling stations before this it rather undermines the whole idea. Plus as voting is taking place at differing times across the US I wonder whether Dixville Notch might not just tell us about the poll there or the state of New Hampshire. As you point out the votes are not one poll across the US but rather gaining elecoral college seats by state.

Waybread wrote:
Quote:
I liked the simplicity of the Gryphon article, however, because if you use the Aries ingress, maybe you can just skip the messiness of the actual "birth" date and time of the 2016 general election. My problem with it, however, is the "one size fits all" approach. Presumably other elections around the world will happen in 2016: would they all have the same result for the party in power?


No. Because ingress charts differ depending on your location. So in different locations you find different signs on the angles. Even within one country the chart will have variations with some planets more angular than others. Hence the aries ingress for Orlando this year had Mars much closer to the ASC than the US Aries ingress.

Nina Gryphon has researched Aries ingress charts going back over a century. I believe she correctly predicted the last election using this method.

From a traditional perspective there are two issues with Gryphon's approach. Firstly, she insists on the Aries ingress as the key chart for the year at all times. In traditional astrology other ingress charts are often examined. In that approach we look at all 4 ingresses if a cardinal sign rises in the Aries ingress. We look at the Libra ingress if a mutable sign rises in the Aries ingress. Only if a fixed sign rises in the aries ingress would be limit ourselves to just the Aries ingress.

Secondly, Gryphon adopts a rather simplified approach to ingress delineation. In particular Lord 10=government/incumbent party, Lord 4=opposition/challenging party. However, in medieval astrology there were other delineation issues such as determining the Lord of the Year.

Hence a traditional astrologer would use the Libra ingress in September 2016 as the key ingress chart to determine the result since the Aries ingress located for Washington DC had Sagittarius rising.

Mark
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waybread



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Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I re-checked major transits for Clinton's chart (Astro-DataBank's 8:00 a.m. birth time) on November 8, using very close orbs. I think they look pretty good:

Transiting sun partile conjunct Venus
Transiting moon:*
Transiting Mercury partile conjunct ascendant.
Transiting Venus trine Uranus (1 degree of orb)
Transiting Mars partile conjunct Lilith, sextile Jupiter (1 degree of orb, out-of-sign)
Transiting Jupiter conjunct Neptune (1 degree of orb)
Transiting Saturn trine Pluto-Mars (ditto)
Transiting Uranus partile trine Saturn, square moon (ditto)
Transiting Neptune: no major contacts
Transiting Pluto trine Venus (1 degree of orb)

*The moon will ping all kinds of stuff during the day as it will travel 12 degrees from 18 degrees Aquarius to 0 Pisces. It will square/oppose a lot of her Scorpio-Leo planets as well as Jupiter. It will trine Uranus. So this looks trying, but the other transits look particularly strong.

As indicated previously, we probably should play around with different starting times and locations for the general election, as well as different astrological techniques, but I think Clinton will have a good day based on the above.
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Therese Hamilton



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Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Candidates for US president are chosen by delegates at national conventions in July of this year:

Republican convention in Cleveland, OH, Ohio: 18-21 July 2016 (Donald Trump's party)
Democratic convention in Philadelphia, PA, Pennsylvania: 25-28 July 2016 (Hillary Clinton's party)

Barring death, Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination. The only surprise will be who she chooses for her vice presidential running mate. It's even possible, though not probable, that she could choose her husband, past president Bill Clinton.

However, we may see high drama during the Republican convention. A year after Donald Trump launched his presidential bid, and against all expectations, the business mogul is the presumptive GOP nominee. Though Donald Trump is well ahead in the popular vote and delegate count, he is extremely unpopular with the movers and shakers within the Republican party (GOP, Grand Old Party). They want him OUT. As I'm not a political analyst or expert, I'm quoting from an article below which explains Trump's popularity.

We have Trump's AA rated birth data from AstrodataBank. Will he come out of the convention as the Republican nominee for US president? If so, will he fail to carry through at the time of the US election in November? For myself, I'm satisfied with my choice for Hillary Clinton's time of birth, but I know there are diverse opinions on her data. I believe the sidereal solar return and ennead (40 day period within the SR) charts are clear on the presidential outcome. I can post these charts later for comparison with other methods and techniques.

http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=9165 (Data I use, tested on past events)

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Clinton,_Hillary (ADB time controversy)

Quote:
"White Middle Americans express heavy mistrust of every institution in American society: not only government, but corporations, unions, even the political party they typically vote for the Republican Party of Romney, Ryan, and McConnell, which they despise as a sad crew of weaklings and sellouts...And when Donald Trump came along, they were the people who told the pollsters, "That's my guy."...Their rebellion against the power of organized money has upended American politics in ways that may reverberate for a long time.

"...[Trump] jettisoned party orthodoxy on issues ranging from entitlement spending to foreign policy. He scoffed at trade agreements...He reviled the campaign contributions of big donors, himself included... Trump's surge was a decisive repudiation by millions of Republican voters of the collective wisdom of their party elite."
Quoted from The Atlantic. com
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/

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Therese Hamilton



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Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is Hillary Clinton's pm SSR (sidereal solar return) chart re-located to Washington, DC. Transiting Mercury (her pm ascendant lord) is partile conjunct the Sun in house 10 (equal cusp as center of the house). Solar return MC is on natal Jupiter, and transiting Jupiter is trine the SR ascendant. Outer cusps and planets are the solar return positions, natal chart planets are in the center.


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james_m



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Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

therese,

thanks for your posts on the sidereal thread articulating yours and others thoughts on which chart to use for hillary... i found them worthwhile to read...

it seems such a shame that a public birth record isn't available for such an important public figure, but this is the state of ambivalence and/or outright hostility towards astrology that continues today..

i am conflicted over the use of a time for hillary.. i looked into this at length the last go around, but probably don't have the stomach for it this time round..
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Therese Hamilton



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Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

James wrote:
Quote:
thanks for your posts on the sidereal thread articulating yours and others thoughts on which chart to use for hillary... i found them worthwhile to read...
(...)
i am conflicted over the use of a time for hillary.. i looked into this at length the last go around, but probably don't have the stomach for it this time round..

Astrologers have many ways of determining a correct birth time. I've had very good luck in using sidereal solar return charts (which can be cast in the tropical zodiac if precession is removed). So as not to distract from this thread, today I've posted a chart for the date Hillary learned of the Monica Lewinsky affair. That chart is one of the most dramatic and truthful charts I've ever seen, and is based on the PM birth hour.
http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=9165

Now for this thread, the question is whether Donald Trump will become the Republican presidential nominee at the convention in Cleveland, Ohio, 18-21 July 2016. This is an important date for Trump because his solar return begins a month before the convention in June. I think it's apparent (based on her solar return chart) that Hillary will win the election, but will she be running against Donald Trump? I hope forum members will check in on this question. I haven't yet done the background work to answer the Trump nominee question.

Therese
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Mark
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Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just to throw the cat amongst the pigeons (or maybe a pigeon amongst the cats?) here is an article by Kevin Burk from the Mountain Astrologer where he argues astrology (natal at least) cannot predict the next US President!

http://mountainastrologer.com/tma/astrology-cant-predict-next-president

Mark
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james_m



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Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mark,

thanks for sharing that story!

the way i read it, kevin seems to break it down along the idea of what is a valid horary question, and what can you get from a natal or mundane chart? one - apparently - all objective, and the other/s - subjective mumbo jumbo when it comes to answering the question! it would be a good article for the philosophy section! your analogy - cat with the pigeons, or pigeon with the cats is a good one! that is a matter of opinion as well..
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Therese Hamilton



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Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
Quote:
Just to throw the cat amongst the pigeons (or maybe a pigeon amongst the cats?) here is an article by Kevin Burk from the Mountain Astrologer where he argues astrology (natal at least) cannot predict the next US President!

http://mountainastrologer.com/tma/astrology-cant-predict-next-president

There are too many questions related to that article that would take this thread off track. Philosophically the question is psychology (modern tropical) vs predictive astrology (Indian and western classical). One reason I don't practice modern psychological astrology is that free will comes into the equation. Thus, I favor event astrology. We can see planetary transits approaching which can signify an approaching event, (though we may not be able to tell exactly what that event is), but we can't know how a person will react to that event. That is where free will comes into the equation.

So I hold that with the proper predictive techniques based on accurate natal charts, we can quite possibly predict winners. However, modern western astrology has become so versatile and sloppy ("I do it my way, you do it your way") that I can see many reasons why astrologers can no longer make accurate predictions. So it all depends on what kind of astrology the astrologer is practicing and what kind of forecasting techniques are employed--whether those techniques have proven their worth through research and testing or should be discarded due to giving false or ambiguous results.

So it's a big question: What IS astrology anyway?? There are dozens of possible answers. Each astrologer has to make a personal choice.

P.S. Would it be possible to shrink Stellarlium's chart to Message Board size (640x480) to make reading much easier for those of us with smaller screens?? Long text lines that have to be scrolled just don't work for easy reading.
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waybread



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Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Curtis, I just caught up on your linked article. Bravo.

You predicted a difficult autumn for Clinton. Of course, many in the Trump and Sanders camps are hoping she will get indicted over her State Department emails. (Which , although not a finding of guilt, puts forward sufficient evidence to proceed to a grand jury.) My thought is that even if the FBI finds she's broken no laws, the exculpatory evidence still won't gloss over violations of State Department policies and procedures; and that her opponents will charge that the Democratic executive branch whitewashed the FBI findings.

Is this scenario consistent with your analysis?

Does anyone know of an astrologer with an excellent (if imperfect) method of predicting (or post-dicting) presidential election outcomes? If so, can you link a site or explain their methods?

One topic that is sometimes overlooked is getting the right house system for a candidate. I find that generally Placidus works just fine, BUT-- one size does not fit all. Clinton's chart with an 8:00 am (or as near as dammit) birth time works well-- in whole signs. It positions her domiciled Jupiter in the second house, and puts her Scorpio-Leo planets in the angular first and tenth houses. (Depending on the source, the Clintons' personal net worth is somewhere around $80 to $110 million; despite modest beginnings.) Billionaire Donald Trump's Jupiter is in the second house with Placidus, however. Alice Portman www.aliceportman.com found that Regiomontanus works best for the British royal family.

I'm also coming around to the view, after playing around with different charts on different issues, that one size does not fit all so far as prognostication methods go for given individuals or events. However, some methods should work well for a given event if predictive astrology means anything whatsoever; and they should zing something in the chart (a house or planet) that signifies the topic in question.

It occurred to me that becoming the POTUS would be a monumental event in anybody's life; and it should show up as something involving the MC or 10th house. This doesn't mean a nominee can't have other issues going on in his/her life simultaneously, but we'd expect at least some significant action going on with the MC or 10th house, would we not?

Uranus modernly rules sudden change, and (tropical) solar arc Uranus hits Clinton's MC with the ca. 8:00 am birth time, and squares Trump's MC on election day.

Then, I think that if we apply a range of prognosticative methods, theoretically these should compound to give at least some probabilities.

But I take the point that getting to election day is a lengthy process with many intermediate steps; and perhaps we need to look at them: announcement of a candidacy, key primary state dates, the party's national convention, early voting start-dates, election day, and the date when the Electoral College finally votes.

Trouble is, this is a whole lot more work than most of us are willing to undertake. (Speaking for myself, naturally.)


Last edited by waybread on Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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