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Presidential Election -Predicting Without nativities

 
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Mark
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Joined: 30 Sep 2005
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Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:01 am    Post subject: Presidential Election -Predicting Without nativities Reply with quote

US Presidential Election 2016 Background

The 2016 Presidential election between Democratic party nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump has generated intense interest not just in the United States but across the world. As one commentator stated the US Presidential election is the greatest political theatre on earth. And no election in living memory has seen such drama or personalised invective on both sides. At times feeling more like a TV drama than a political contest we have seen the yo-yo effects of both campaigns since the Convention seasons. Stories around Clinton’s health and deleted emails and Trump’s attitudes towards various social groups being called into question and his sexual comments regarding women have often dominated over news coverage over and above any attempt to get into actual policy. The TV debates were personalised, brutal and negative to the extent that they often appeared more like an episode of Jerry Springer than a serious political dialogue. While Clinton has benefited from better corporate funding and a superior campaign organisation on the ground Trump has relied more on Social Media and numerous rallies to garner support.

The International interest in this election has been matched in the global astrological community and to date around 60 astrologers have ventured a sunbstantive prediction on the outcome of the election.

At this late stage just before close of poll I make no claims to be an inspired prophet. Still, I do want to put my astrological thoughts on record. Not so much to predict the outcome which I have long believed was clear cut but rather to conclusively demonstrate the efficacy of numerous non-natal techniques at predicting the outcomes of elections. In my view far too many astrologers use natal charts to the exclusion of any other technique. In the past however, nativities were fairly far down the tree of methods that would be used to make a prediction.

The Problem of Natal charts

One of the difficulties this election has posed for astrologers is that there is no confirmed birth time for one of the candidates i.e. Hillary Clinton. A majority of astrologers seem to have settled on a likely birth time for Clinton of either around 8am or 8pm. However, the astrologer Marc Penfield caused quite a controversy this year by claiming he had authenticated Clinton’s birth time as 02.18am from the Public Records Office in Illinois. This claim was later recinded by Penfield after his account was called into question. But apart from these times other astrologers have rectified birth times for Clinton with various other rising signs.

Predicting without Natal charts

For these reasons and to demonstrate that natal charts are not required to make accurate mundane predictions I have entirely excluded them from consideration here. I will therefore seek to predict the election utilising 6 non-natal methods:

1 The Jupiter-Saturn cycle
2 The Libra Ingress 2016
3 The Sunrise chart -November 8th 2016
4 Saturn in Sagittarius and the Sibly chart
5 The Venus cycle
6 The Inaugural Moon

I am hoping that the combined testimony of all these methods will allow us to accurately discern the winner in this election.

The Jupiter-Saturn Cycle and Mars-Saturn Conjunction

Traditionally, the Jupiter-Saturn cycle has served as a chronometer of political and economic change with it indicating shifting trends in the world in general. At present we are in the waning phase of that cycle before the next conjunction takes place in Aquarius in 2020. Earlier in 2016 we saw the last waning square of the cycle in May before the next conjunction.

The waning square in May 2016 was followed in June by the dramatic Brexit vote in the United Kingdom when the country voted to leave the European Union. Going completely against the view of most pundits and the political establishment this vote has had a dramatic effect not just on Britain but more widely on the European Union which has been thrown into arguably the greatest existential crisis in its history. This has been followed by a serious of violent events such as the Orlando shootings and various shootings in the US both by and against the Police raising already tense racial tension in the US. In Europe Jihadist terrorism peaked over the summer with further terrorist outrages in France and Germany. ISIS inspired terrorism also spiked around this time in Turkey, and other parts of the middle east.

This waning square is particularly significant because it represented the last square not just since the conjunction of 2000 but also the last square following a sequence of conjunctions in the earth triplicity that first began in 1bbb with the first Saturn-Jupiter conjunction in the earth triplicity.

Another astrological factor that seems to have contributed to these events was the Mars-Saturn Conjunction in Sagittarius which fell on the royal fixed star Antares known as ‘the heart of the Scorpion’ on ‘the rival of Mars’ due to its martial associations. The last time Saturn actually transited this degree was in 1986 which coincided with the Chernobyl Nuclear power station disaster in the Soviet Union.

Many political commentators have detected a general mood of anti-establishment opinion amongst voters across the world this year. Political establishment figures seem to have been put under exceptional pressure. Hence we have seen the Brexit vote in Britain with the downfall of David Cameron’s government and the rise of the ‘anti-politician’ Donald Trump. In Europe we have also seen the defeat of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in regional elections to the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party. We also had the defeat of the Columbian government in its referendum seeking a peace deal with the FARS rebels.

However, I think that we are now entering a quieter phase leading up to the next Jupiter-Saturn conjunction in Aquarius in 2020. That conjunction will very much favour a new phase in world affairs and a more dramatic shift in political structures.

The astrological dynamics of November 2016 are quite different from the summer for several reasons. Firstly, Jupiter has now changed signs from its sign of detriment in Virgo to Libra a sign where it is a triplicity ruler. Jupiter and Saturn are no longer in a square relationship but instead in a sextile to each other. Unlike the Brexit both Mars and Saturn are now direct and no longer in the same sign or disposited by a Jupiter in detriment. Traditionally, when the planets are retrograde and most especially the superior planets we can expect world events to go against this expected order of things. But this key astrological signature of the Brexit is now missing. I think all these factors make it much less likely Trump will be able to repeat a Brexit like effect and overturn the entire political establishment by winning the presidency.

Ingress Charts-General considerations

While modern astrology tends to rely on national charts to get an overview of what is happening in a country in the medieval and renaissance period astrologers used the ingress of the Sun into the cardinal signs as a key barometer of what the trends were for a Nation or Kingdom or Empire.
One great advantage of an ingress chart is that there is no ambiguity on what chart to use. If we look at the so called national chart for the USA there are actually several competing charts for the 4th of July 1776 with rising signs varying from Sagittarius, Scorpio, Virgo, Libra and Gemini. Moreover, other key charts can be used for the USA such charts for the chart for the POTUS, Constitution or for the date the Congress voted for independence on July 2nd 1776.

The traditional approach was to look at the Aries ingress. If a cardinal sign rose on the ascendant the astrologer would look at charts for the Aries, Cancer, Libra and Capricorn ingress during the year. If a mutable or common sign was rising in the Aries ingress the astrologers looked at just the Aries and Libra ingress that year. If a fixed sign was rising in the cAruies ingress chart the astrologers relied on the Aries ingress chart for the entire year until the next Aries ingress.

General Delineation Approach

Since Sagittarius, a mutable or common sign was rising in the Aries ingress we therefore give focus to the Libra ingress as the key ingress chart this year in determining events around the US election.



In the medieval or renaissance period astrologers would assign the King the Midheaven sign and its rulers while his political or dynastic rivals would be assigned to the 4th house.

However, this a traditional approach faces a serious challenge if we are going to apply it to contemporary politics. Modern America is both a republic and a democracy. There is no King as such but an elected President. Moreover, even if we accept the President as equivalent in authority to a King the US constitution sets a restriction on all Presidential terms to two periods in office.
President Obama cannot be re-elected at this election so the nominees of the Democratic and Republican party are now challenging for the position of President. The question then arises of how we assign astrological significators to Clinton and Trump?

In his analysis of the ingress the British astrologer Peter Stockinger has compared this situation as comparable to the scenario of competing dynastic royal houses in the medieval or renaissance eras seeking control of the Kingdom. Using this approach Clinton can be seen as coming from the same dynastic or political group as Obama while Donald Trump represents a rival political force challenging for power. I think this approach has considerable logic in an election where an incumbent President is not seeking re-election.

However, I find Stockinger’s logic that Clinton should be represented by the 12th house from the 10th to give her the sign of Cancer and the Moon as her significator unconvincing. Traditionally, the political allies of the ruler were assigned the 2nd house from the 10th or the radical 11th house. Hence, the 11th house was symbolised’’ the party of the King’’ according to William Lilly

This gives Clinton the signifcation of the sign of Virgo ruled by Mercury. In contrast the political opposition to Obama and the Democrats can be generally represented by the sign of Aquarius and the planet Saturn.

However, if we take Virgo as the effective turned 1st house for Clinton her direct political opponent can be differentiated from the Republican party in general which is also competing for seats in the Congress. Hence Saturn can serve as general significator for the Republicans and and other political forces opposed to a further Democrat party administration. However, Jupiter symbolises Trump specifically. This approach seems particularly justified in this election year where there has been unprecedented criticism of Trump by senior figures in the Republican party who have publicly stated they do not consider him fit to hold the highest office.

Delineation of Libra ingress 2016



Clinton is represented in the ingress chart as Mercury in Virgo. We see her significator planet in both its sign of domicile rulership and exaltation. It is also conjunct the fortunate North Node. Mercury is placed in the fortunate 11th house by Whole sign or Alcabitius houses while in the angular 10th by Placidus or Equal. Clinton is therefore very strongly represented in this chart.
In contrast Trump is indicated as Jupiter in Libra and this falls in the 11th house. While relatively strong by sign and house placement Jupiter is heavily debilitated by its proximity to the Sun. The major difficulty for Clinton is that Mercury is stationary direct in the ingress. I think this indicates many of the difficulties getting her campaign has faced and the likely public opposition she will face from many disgruntled US voters.

This is interesting since during the campaign President Obama (The Sun) has taken the historically unprecedented step of opening criticising Trump and helping Clinton to campaign against him. Like senior figures in the Republican party Obama has argued Trump is not fit to hold public office. Despite the relatively low personal support for Hillary Clinton this intervention may prove vital in securing turn out of the crucial black American vote.
The Moon is a general indicator of the people and the popular will in the country. In this chart the Moon falls in Gemini and is disposited by Mercury. Surely an indicator favouring Clinton.

In terms of its next applying aspect the Moon will form an opposition to Mars. Mars in the chart is the ASC ruler. In ingress chart this is another indicator of the mood of the people. The fact these two planets form an opposition shows the highly polarised state of American politics. Moreover, this will be a trend that will continue to the inauguration and beyond. This indicates a lot of public division and anger regardless of which candidate wins. There has already been statements from Donald Trump that he will not readily accept a defeat as democratically legitimate since he suggests the system is ''rigged''. If Hillary Clinton is elected she will face fierce opposition from day one.

Polling day Sunrise chart



Another method that can be used is to utilise a chart for the election day itself. There are two basic methods that can be adopted. Firstly, a midnight chart for the opening of poll. Secondly, a sunrise chart for election day.

According to research by Lee Lehman these techniques have a good statistical track record of accurately predicting the election result. Her search suggests the Midnight chart for Dixville Notch has 66% accuracy rate compared to 67% accuracy for the Sunrise chart.

http://leelehman.com/Conferences/2016/2016PresidentialElection.pdf

Like Lehman I use Bonatti's open battle methodology in the sense that the ASC is assigned to the challenging party while the incumbent is assigned the DESC. The strength of the rulers of these houses are weighted by sign, house and aspect. In addition the Moon as general significator for the public. Applying aspects by planets to the Moon can be an indicator of the flow of the election.

As so many several astrologers have looked at the opening of poll chart I have decided to focus on the Sunrise chart. Note: I do not use the technique of assigning Saturn or Jupiter as natural significators for the Democratic or Republican party.

In the Sunrise chart for 2016 we see Trump symbolised by an exalted Mars in Capricorn while Clinton is represented by Venus in Sagittarius. These seem appropriate planets to symbolise the martial , pugnacious Trump and Clinton as the first female Presidential candidate. However, Mars is about to enter Aquarius in the early hours of November 9th. This could represent a weakening of status for Trump. In terms of house placement Venus is in the 2nd house while Mars is in the 3rd. Traditionally, planets in succedent houses (2nd) are stronger in expression than planets in cadent houses 3rd). Crucially, here the Moon in Aquarius is in a close applying sextile to Venus. All these factors seem a very clear indicator of a Clinton victory over Trump.

Saturn in Sagittarius and the US Sibly Chart

In studying previous Presidential elections since the modern two party system began in 1856 I have looked at placement of all the planets in signs to see if there was any recurrent themes.

On the whole the placement of planets seems to fall fairly randomly.
However, I have noted that the Republican party have never lost an election with the Moon in every sign except Sagittarius.

Probably the most interesting trend seems to be Saturn in Sagittarius. Saturn in Sagittarius has occurred in four previous Presidential elections in 1872, 1928, 1956, and 1988. In each of these elections the Republican party has won.

So taken in isolation the placement of Saturn in Sagittarius seems to favour the Republican party.

However, another important factor in each of these elections was that the Republicans were the incumbent party in power.

So in one sense this trend seems to favour Trump as a Republican but on the other favours Clinton as the nominee of the incumbent Democratic party. How do we reconcile this apparent contradiction?

The US Sibly chart is of course Sagittarius rising and like many astrologers I find this quite a descriptive chart for the USA. I personally use a rectified version of this chart of 17.25pm LMT 4th July 1776, Philadelphia.
So the presence of Saturn in Sagittarius means Saturn is on the US ascendant.



Looking a previous elections the successful candidate seems to be the one that best channels the sobre, serious , Saturnian energy. In previous elections with Saturn located here the American electorate seem to seek a candidate who is a ‘safe pair of hands’. Herbert Hoover in 1928, Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 and George Bush senior in 1988 all embodied those conservative qualities.

2016 has certainly been a year where there has seemed to be a mood of anti-establishment across the globe. Many astrologers have highlighted Trump’s previous unxexpected success as vindication that his ‘anti-politician’, uncensored comments will carry the day in terms of popular support. But as I noted above many of the astrological factors that previously favoured Trump are no longer operative such as the Jupiter-Saturn square or retrograde motion of Mars and Saturn.

While Trump’s Uranian characteristics may have helped propel him to the Republican candidacy ultimately I see these characteristics working against him in terms of winning the Presidency. The successful candidate is more likely to be the one channelling the sober, safe even dull perception tuning into Saturn on the US Ascendant. For all her faults Hillary Clinton seems much closer to embodying that Saturnian energy with a majority of voters than Trump. Ironically, if the Republicans had chosen a more conventional, politician like Marco Rubio I think they would have stood a much better chance of winning this election.

The Venus Cycle and Visual Astrology

Bernadette Brady's Babylonian approach to astrology is well worth study by any student of astrology. Difficult as it might be for many to accept Brady has very convincingly shown that with only a few exceptions this method explains the results of most Presidential elections since the modern two party system began in the 1850s.

This article was written by Bernadette Brady in 2008 before the Presidential election that year and explains the technique and how it has worked so consistently:

http://www.zyntara.com/VisualAstrologyNewsletters/van_Sept2008/VAN_Sept2008.htm

Brady's 'visual astrology'' can be summarised as follows. Venus follows an 8 year astronomical cycle which coincidentally harmonises with the 4 year political cycle of Presidential elections. These happen to be times when Venus is bright in the sky. When Venus is rising before the Sun (morning star) it tends to favour the King or incumbent party. When rising in the evening after the sun has set (evening star) it tends to radiate its favours to which ever of the two key power planets it is nearest to.

In Bablylonian thinking Saturn was the King while Jupiter was the Crown Prince (challenger for power). Thus in 2008 when Obama won Venus was in its evening star phase and radiated closest to Jupiter (the crown Prince). He symbolized that energy powerfully that year. On the other hand in 2012 when Obama won his second term Venus was in its morning phase and radiated to Saturn (The King) indicating the incumbent would win. This year the king (Obama) has retired and his appointed heir is seeking the throne (Clinton).



In November 2016 Venus again radiates to Saturn suggesting the ruling party or figure symbolizing the status quo stays in office. I have displayed a simplified chart for the evening of the election displaying only Venus, Saturn and Jupiter.

The Inaugural Moon

The Astrologer Robert Nicewander has found what is undoubtably the simplest method of determining the election winner. Indeed its so straightforward that some astrologers have found the technique rather insulting since it leaves little room for horoscopic nuances.
Newton has found a remarkable statistical link between the location of the Moon above or below the horizon on inauguration day and whether the incumbent or challenging party will win.

http://imgur.com/a/KH3of

In summary when the Moon is above the horizon at the time of the inauguration date there tends to be a transfer of power from the incumbent to the challenging party. In contrast with the Moon is below the horizon the incumbent party tends to retain power. In the 30 inaugurations since 1901 this method has accurately predicted the winner on 26 out of 30 occasions. This gives a success rate of over 86%.

Years when the technique failed to work were 1905, 1937, 1981, and 1985. Interestingly, both of Ronald Reagan's inaugurations coincided with either a Full or New Moon. So this seems to be a consideration skewing the system. The election of 1905 did have the Moon above the horizon. However, this was the election after the assassination of President McKinley and the Moon was conjunct Saturn indicating support for the status quo. In 1937 this was the first inauguration held in January 20th rather than the traditional date of March 4th. In the actual chart for that inauguration the Moon is only within a degree of the ASC although technically above the horizon.

Why might this method be so accurate at predicting the winning party? Certainly in mundane astrology the Moon is a signifier of the people. And in techniques like horary the lights above the horizon indicate a lost object being found while below the horizon they are indicators of them never being located. So the Moon above the horizon could be symbolic of a general popular mood for change while below the horizon an indicator of things remaining with the status quo.

I have tried this method out on the close of poll on elections day itself but it does not work consistently. So why inauguration rather than election day? Perhaps because inauguration day is politically the day real political power shifts in America not election day itself.

On November the 2016 the Moon is below the horizon indicating the incumbent party The Democrats) will retain power.



This is only one technique and the high success of this method could be a statistical fluke. Nevertheless it does seem to be one further testimony adding support to the notion Clinton will win the election.

Conclusion

The testimony of all the techniques combined lead me to predict that Hillary Clinton will be the next US President.
_________________
‘’As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity…’’ William Lilly
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