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Next President of France 2017
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Mark
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Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As Rocko questioned if the 8am time was right for an opening of poll chart I have done a bit digging and found a reliable link which clearly states when the opening and close of poll take place in French elections.

French elections always take place on a Sunday. Opening of poll is 8am. Close of poll is 6pm in rural areas but 8pm in the cities. So the times used here are correct.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_France

Mark
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Mark
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Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vicki wrote:
Quote:
So when Rocko asked how we should treat the May 7th chart as a contest I would say the Asc. would represent the status quo i.e. Macron


I agree. This follows the traditional maxims of Bonatti and Lilly that the ASC =status quo and the DESC=change. There is no doubt Le Pen represents a radical departure from the status quo!

But we have the two ballot system here. So the question arises whether the correct opening of poll chart for the contest is for April 23rd or May 7th? I tend to treat the second ballot as a fresh contest. Candidates who got the most votes in the first round often go on to lose in the second round. I therefore give the second ballot chart precedence.

I have only had the briefest of looks at the opening of poll chart on May 7th. After a quick peek I assign Macron to Mercury and Le Pen to Jupiter. Both planets look like they are in good houses ie 11th and 5th WSH. So I expect a tight result. However, the Moon applies to conjunct Jupiter and opposes Mercury (although that opposition is outside fixed or moeity orbs). That would seem to favour Le Pen. The Moon separates from an opposition to Venus (lord 12) (self undoing??) and applies to Jupiter (lord 7). From UK General election charts I find the candidate with a Moon Jupiter conjunction ,or trine generally wins as they can garner the public support necessary to win. Whatever you think of Le Pen's politics she has charisma.

On the other hand the Moon's next aspect following its separating opposition to Venus is a trine to Mars which is the dispositor of Mercury in Aries. hmmmmm

Macron seems to be the heavy favourite in the polls with them giving him 60-65% estimated support. Le Pen therefore has an awful lot of ground to make up before May 7th. Far more than Trump in the US election or the UK Brexit required. Still, Mercury is conjunct Uranus and we all know how reliable polls have been lately! There may be a factor like Brexit or Trump support where people are often reluctant to share their true views with the pollsters because such a choice is condemned in the media as politically reactionary. I do wonder what effect the last terrorist attack might have had on the French national psyche.

I definitely need to check out some more charts before I come down firmly on either side. I haven't even studied the natal charts yet. Or an important mundane chart for this election no astrologer has even discussed anywhere as far as I can see.

Mark
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Last edited by Mark on Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Mark
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Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An article by the Serbian astrologer Smiljana Gavrancic on the French Presidential election. This originally appeared in the March/April 2017 issue of the UK Astrological Journal. However, Smiljana she has updated her piece with additional analysis of Macron following his coming first in the 1st ballot. She still, sticks with her original analysis that Le Pen is the likely winner.

http://astrologsmiljanagavrancic.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/presidential-elections-in-france-2017_24.html

Mark
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WooWoo



Joined: 05 Apr 2013
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Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think my ongoing weekly or rolling high level Mundane analysis helps much here except I know if you have an event, or events, scheduled for a few days before the Full Moon, as is the case for both Elections coming up, then you'll be in a "whitey" zone for sure.

And if you can throw in a drop or two of Scorpio too in the mix then you'll be into a "wide eyed whitey" zone even more for sure.

By the time the Full Moon itself has bitten the real screaming tension tends to have faded a bit.

How that plays out in the votes of course is hard to tell but people tend to start to do strange things ...

Seemingly Irrational.

H-(owl)
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Graham F



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
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Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's interesting that a number of brave astrologers, including here on Skyscript, are still predicting a Le Pen win on 7th May, or at least saying she looks well placed astrologically. This despite the polls giving her very little chance (and this time the final first round polls were very accurate, unlike with Brexit and Trump). The Skyscript consensus before first round was also that Macron's chart didn't look like that of the final winner. We shall see!

I said here back in February that I thought the run-off would be between Le Pen and Mélenchon (the far left candidate). So I was wrong, but he did do much better than expected (over 19%, practically neck and neck with Fillon of the official right). The official Socialist, Hamon, on 6%.

I still think Le Pen's chart looks promising, in relation to 7th May charts and the 5th Republic chart, but I just don't see realistically how she could pick up enough more votes to win. There's a big closing of ranks against the Front National, which most voters don't seem prepared to cross.

I'll try and have a proper look at Macron's chart. James earlier pointed out the various Saturn placements in his SR chart - perhaps these should be seen as positive rather than negative, as Saturn is his ascendant ruler (tropically and sidereally, if birth time correct). And north node transit as expansive, supporting success?

BTW, Mark is right that start of vote is 8am, but this year close of vote has changed - in both rounds, it's now 7pm for most places (not 6 as before), 8pm as before in some big cities (and 8 for first exit polls and early results).

Graham
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WooWoo



Joined: 05 Apr 2013
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Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd like to hear a lot more from MingWei Wang.

I like your style very much. Simply I feel.

Can you elaborate a bit more on the steps you took.

"A Women to have the power" ?

Doesn't Macron have a Wife 20 years his senior ?

She must have some say in what he does and thinks, n'est pas?

As to Le Pen winning. I think she might but that doesn't really mean she'll be in power as they have Parliamentary Elections in June.

She has to win big there if she want to do anything. Cheques and Bank Balances ?

H

PS Sorry I meant Checks and Balances.
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Mjacob



Joined: 17 Nov 2011
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Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Graham F wrote:
It's interesting that a number of brave astrologers, including here on Skyscript, are still predicting a Le Pen win on 7th May, or at least saying she looks well placed astrologically. This despite the polls giving her very little chance (and this time the final first round polls were very accurate, unlike with Brexit and Trump).

Graham

Well if you made a prediction some time back based on astrology then surely you cannot change your mind based on a recent survey or a consensus of pollitical pundits? I cannot see on what arithmetic the recent newspapers point to a massive defeat for Le Pen in the second round are based on but it is not relevant here on an astrology forum
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Mark
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Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 2:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mjacob wrote:
Quote:
Well if you made a prediction some time back based on astrology then surely you cannot change your mind based on a recent survey or a consensus of pollitical pundits? I cannot see on what arithmetic the recent newspapers point to a massive defeat for Le Pen in the second round are based on but it is not relevant here on an astrology forum.


People can do anything they like Matthew! For nearly everyone here astrology is just a hobby.

Some might say that is just as well considering the number failed predictions that there were for the US election! Although considering the bulk of professionals got it wrong too did provide some solace that we were in esteemed company at least.

And a two ballot race is very tricky. Still, we do at least have AA natal data for both candidates here. Something we lacked for the US election.

Its true the polls and betting odds were wrong on both Brexit and the US election. But they didn't demand the kind of political Tsunami a Le Pen win would require. In actual fact the UK polls were very close to the final result on the UK Brexit -online polls at least not the telephone polling which was way out.

Here we have an actual vote to go on from the first round. And the preferences of voters who voted for candidates other than Le Pen and Macron have been polled. Le Pen quite simply has a political mountain to climb in electoral terms. She needs large numbers of far left voters to switch to her or abstain and needs to garner most of Fillon's voters. So far if the polls are to be believed {?) she is not coming remotely close on either front:

Take a look at this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/apr/23/french-presidential-election-results-2017-latest

But Le Pen really has nothing to lose and everything to play for as the outsider. I want to study more charts after my astrological hiatus here.

Its interesting quite a few traditionalists seem to favour a Le Pen win. In particular Sharon Knight , Jonathan Flanery and Mei Wing Wang. All these astrologers correctly predicted the US election. What are your thoughts as a medievalist yourself Matthew?

The opening of poll chart is intriguing and makes me think another poll defying outcome might be possible despite the odds. Could there be a ''Frexit factor'' here where voters dont want to tell posters they favour Le Pen rather like the phenomena in the US with Trump?

Mark
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javed



Joined: 02 Apr 2017
Posts: 11

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:39 am    Post subject: The Perils of Astrological Prediction Reply with quote

Here is an excellent newsletter “The Perils of Astrological Prediction,” from Steven Forrest. He mentions the big International Society for Astrological Research (ISAR) conference in California this past October where a panel of astrologers predicted who would win the U.S. presidential election. None picked Donald Trump. Their calculations suggested a Clinton victory, just as the majority of pollsters had predicted.

“I think the idea that ‘astrologers can see the future’ has done us nothing but harm. We cannot see the future! Probabilities . . .yes – that's why our predictions are often correct. Questions and issues, certainly – there is the heart of our craft. ISAR made a mistake simply with the PREMISE of this panel. It is time for a major paradigm shift in astrological thinking.”


http://www.forrestastrology.com/newsletters/574-february-2017-newsletter


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MingWei Wang



Joined: 06 May 2004
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Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I notice the lord of year has significant influence on presidency election, but I am not sure if choose a right significator for each candidate due to my limited experiece on prophecing presidency election.

In US presidency election of 2016 year, Mercury is the lord of year of Washington and Donald Trump has his Sun in Mercury's sign.

In France presidency election of 2017 year, Mars is the lord year of Paris while it is Le Pen's Almuten of a Figure.
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Vicki



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Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In addition to the Opening Poll chart I have just now looked at the Closing Poll chart (8 pm Paris).

The Moon is at 12 Libra 12 which very closely conjoins Macron's North node at 12 Libra 09 in his natal WS 10th.

In addition to the Opening Poll Moon applying to 10 Gemini conjoining Macron's POF this is another piece of evidence for a Macron win imo. I hope I'm wrong.
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WooWoo



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Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You'd have to think that it is very relevant to consider the transits to the Candidates around the time the Polls close.

Surely if Astrology works then one or other would have a very positive shine at that moment or around it.

H
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Mjacob



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Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
People can do anything they like Matthew! For nearly everyone here astrology is just a hobby.


I am more of Fascist than Le Pen's father when it comes to Astrology
Smile

But yes there must be a lot of French voters fibbing to the Pollsters if she wins
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Graham F



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
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Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vicki writes
Quote:
the Opening Poll Moon applying to 10 Gemini conjoining Macron's POF

I suppose you must mean the moon in the closing poll (8pm Paris), at 12° Libra applying to a trine with Macron's POF (at 13°50 Gemini)??
Or the ascendant in the opening poll at 8am at 17°30 Gemini, but separating from Macron's POF?

Vicki writes
Quote:
this is another piece of evidence for a Macron win imo. I hope I'm wrong.


I very much hope you're right! Enjoy your Brexit!

Graham
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MingWei Wang



Joined: 06 May 2004
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Location: Taiwan

Posted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:53 am    Post subject: Their natal charts Reply with quote

because we have their birth date and time and suppose the data is correct,

Marine Le Pen, age 48 years

Profections:

Ascendent in the Libra (the 1st sign or house).

Emmanuel Macron , age 39 years

Profections:

Ascendent in the Aries (the 4th sign or house).

The Sun conjunction Mercury is an important indicator for their promotion in my view .

If calculate their directions to Mid-heaven, we are able to find:

[img]https://i0.wp.com/sfhorary.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/screen-shot-2017-04-30-at-e4b88ae58d887-38-49.png?w=771&h=213&crop&ssl=1
[/img]

[img]https://i1.wp.com/sfhorary.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/screen-shot-2017-04-30-at-e4b88ae58d887-41-11.png?w=771&h=301&crop&ssl=1
[/img]

[img]https://i1.wp.com/sfhorary.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/screen-shot-2017-04-30-at-e4b88ae58d887-42-27.png?w=694&h=343&crop&ssl=1
[/img]

Data shows me , one peak of the promotion of Le Pen is during 1990 to 1992 year, and another peak of her promotion is during 2013 to 2016 year .

Quote:
She practiced law beginning in 1992 (the protection of her ascendent is in the Libra and the event is supposed to happen before August )

And she was the first to announce her candidacy for the 2017 French presidential election on 8 April 2016. She has consistently maintained high popularity in polling figures: she is predicted to gather between 28% and 30% in the first round on 23 April 2017.


(Source : http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Le_Pen,_Marine)

Emmanule Macron ,

Quote:
He was a member of the Socialist Party (PS) from 2006 to 2009.

Around 1999 he worked as an editorial assistant to Paul Ricoeur, the French Protestant philosopher who was then writing his last major work La Mémoire, l’Histoire, l’Oubli. Macron worked mainly on the notes and the bibliography.

From 2012 to 2014, he served as deputy secretary-general of the Élysée, a senior role in President Hollande’s staff.

In August 2015, Macron stated that he was no longer a member of the PS and was now an Independent.


(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron)

It is quite clear to me, the time turning point of the promotion of 2017 year is more evident in Le Pen’s natal chart than in Macron’s .



If the pictures don't show appropriately , please see them on this post :


https://sfhorary.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/french-presidential-election-2017/


Thank you for your patience to read it in its end.
Lala Happy
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