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USA Presidential election prediction 2016
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zoidsoft



Joined: 10 Feb 2006
Posts: 944
Location: Pulaski, NY

Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:08 am    Post subject: USA Presidential election prediction 2016 Reply with quote

I'd like to point out a misleading statement in Mark's locked thread on the election...

http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=9205

I asked Mark to include me in the Clinton column back in September, but he didn't want to do it saying that it was about the primaries and that I should write an update, but I found that after the election was over he included me in the list.

The problem is that in that prediction I said that I was thinking Clinton would win "with great uncertainty" when above he says that he excluded predictions that had caveats as he states:

Quote:
-Predictions which are not definitive and couched in caveats have been excluded.


It's true that I told Mark that I felt more certain having done more research into Clinton's biography but that I also expected the race to tighten into early November. I still think her birth time fits an 8:00 am placement of profections and zodiacal releasing much more convincingly (using tropical) than any of the other explanations I've seen so far. But I have to question just what it is we think we're measuring when Trump wins the electoral college and Clinton the popular vote? I think that comparing 2 nativities to see who wins is at the wrong level of analysis.

Do we have any right to claim certainty if we also claim that the election will be close? I admit that I cannot find any rational or astrological technique that would allow me to do so. In the Hellenistic texts, when a predomination is uncertain between the lights, it's said to default to the ascendant / the star of Hermes (a planet famously known to go both ways) to make the decision. So which chart would we use now? The electoral college meeting on Mercury Rx December 19th?

I think that in the future if Mark does this again, that a 3rd category should be included for those who say the election is too close to call. In the future I won't be pressed by others to make a call if I think it's going to be too close again.

A link to my prediction here posted early spring 2016:

http://www.astrology-x-files.com/x-files/election2016.html
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elleiif3



Joined: 02 Aug 2015
Posts: 7
Location: Vero Beach, FL

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 5:00 pm    Post subject: USA Presidential election prediction 2016 Reply with quote

It appears Mars in Aquarius is setting up to usher in a December of upheaval regarding the now disputed presidential election.

Note the 20+ degree range of Mars-Aq that will hit:

1) PEOTUS Trump's natal Mars and ascendant

2) Soros' Leo Sun

3) Jill Stein's Sun/Merc 23* Taurus

4) USA's Aquarius Moon

and a slew of other players in this crazy(and dangerous) next episode
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jac



Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Posts: 49

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 1:48 am    Post subject: The Perversion of American News & the Election Effect. Reply with quote

I don't have a link to the chart of the 1st American newspaper The Boston News Letter from 1704, but using online tools I see a strong, straightforward chart with enough hard angles and planets to support a revolution. Saturn squaring Uranus & Mars. 1st house stellium, but 2nd house sun good for values or at least finances. Mercury the messenger forms a friendly trine w/Pluto. That was then.

Then I call up the Telecommunications Act of 1996, what could be interpreted as a governor, or perhaps, pimp. The first thing to jump out is Pluto at the descendant, a signifier of abuse and at very least contention. Pluto & Jupiter square off with Mars, and Merc sq Uranus- Jolting explosions of information, especially in light of the new 'Fake News' allegations. This is now.

Here then is George Soros, subject of controversy, to understate his position. Bucket pattern with the handle being the 2nd house Saturn. Given his nefarious past of positioning himself to determine the fate of others, this placement indicative of relentless and powerful ambitions is horrifying. He is known as the man who broke the Bank of England.

Mr.Trump w/29 degrees of Leo Asc has the Leo archetype beyond capacity, and with his Venus, Merc & Saturn in Cancer sitting in his 11th house would suggest his going to work in the interests of his family (Cancer). The Eastern orientation of his planets would underline his pioneering character, stabilizing him as he enters oncoming attacks and head-on conflicts. Sagittarius in the 4th house I interpret as fierce patriotism. Neptune & Jupiter seem particularly well placed in the 2nd house, illusion and beauty valued as they are.

Your thoughts?


Last edited by jac on Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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elleiif3



Joined: 02 Aug 2015
Posts: 7
Location: Vero Beach, FL

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:09 pm    Post subject: USA Presidential election prediction 2016 Reply with quote

Are you using Aug 12 1930 (time unknown) Budapest, Hungary for George Soros? I don't get a Uranus square to Leo Sun from that data. Please set me straight, if I've gone astray.
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jac



Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Posts: 49

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My error, apologies! Gotta backtrack here, thanks for catching this! Corrected & will have to review later.
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Mark
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Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 4954
Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jac

You seem to have totally missed or deliberately sidelined the fact this thread was created by Curtis Manwaring to feed back comments about my list of astrological predictions on the US Presidential Election. In particular his disatifaction that his name and article were on this. I intend to respond to Curtis properly here. Although I do think this would have been better dealt with by PM between us.

Just why you think a focus on George Soros fits into all that mystifies me.

I noticed you changed the header of your thread post to 'The Perversion of American News & the Election Effect.'' That is not the thread topic here and its not acceptable trying to redirect a thread topic into your preconceived political opinions.

I try very hard to avoid letting this forum get into political conspiracy theories of either the right or left. Its not easy in the current partisan climate. That is why your first post was removed. That is not to say I dont think media often has a bias.

But if you want to discuss the chart of Soros in depth I suggest you take that to the General and Nativities forum. It certainly doesn't fit in this thread so I intend to remove the comments of both yourself and elleiif3. Your both welcome to save your existing comments and post elsewhere. But this thread is quite obviously about predictions on the US Presidential election.

We dont have a thread on post-election America so creating a fresh thread on that would be another way to cover the wider context.

But keep in mind everyone its an opportunity to discuss astrology not partisan political theories. I have already issued a warning to forum members in general that in the current polarised climate in the US I will operate a zero tolerance stance to those trying to use Skyscript as a political soapbox. As moderator I retain the right to delete such posts without prior warning.

Mark
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jac



Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Posts: 49

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for getting back to me Mark, Deb already responded & addressed my concerns.

Actually, I'm not new here, it's just that I seldom have time to visit. The overwhelming tone of very biased partisan politics is why I chose to post what I did in the first place, but I have to wonder if my post didn't appear in the wrong place as there were some issues which either Deb fixed or perhaps worked themselves out (?)

btw; I thought I did pm you as that's how I received this msg, and now see a similar message posted on the forum. Again, uncertain why. Curious if you've seen my last post and if I'm going to be removed for participating at all.

I've been into astrology over 40 years, but must wonder if this is an informal invitation to leave or be kicked out due to my politics.

It is unfortunate the relevance of my post was missed, and somewhat insulting that you would liken me to a disciple of facebook or spurious theory.

Additionally, powerful magnates who direct political parties are considered very relevant in America. Any earnest study of American politics would highlight Soros as a major player. I imagine the picture of whats happening here in America is considerably different then what one might be hearing elsewhere.
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Mark
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Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jac

Its not the same message I posted on PM. Take another look. I'm not going to enter into further debate here. As I said your comments dont belong on this thread. I just wanted to ensure you saw my reply in case you wondered where your comments went.

Your not being victmised here. I took a tough line on pro-Clinton posts here too during the election.

I want to get into a full reply to Curtis here and frankly your commentary is a distraction from that here. I therefore intend to delete all commentary here after the original post by Curtis so the original focus of this thread can be restored.

Mark
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Mark
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Joined: 30 Sep 2005
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Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
I'd like to point out a misleading statement in Mark's locked thread on the election...

http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=9205


I am really not sure what misleading comment you could be referring to Curtis. There is none as far as I can see. If your objection is being in the list of pro-Clinton predictions I will remind you that you previously objected you were not on it! So the only reason you were listed was because you asked to be there.

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
I asked Mark to include me in the Clinton column back in September, but he didn't want to do it saying that it was about the primaries and that I should write an update, but I found that after the election was over he included me in the list.


From my recollection this is only partially accurate. Its correct you asked me to be listed with those predicting a Clinton win. I hadn’t spotted your piece and when I did read it I did feel it was rather non-committal on the outcome in November and focused largely on the primaries. Because both Clinton and Trump had been nominated by this time I asked if you were doing an update. You said no and felt the piece was clear enough. I deferred to your opinion and agreed to put your piece on the list as it was. Our communication over this lasted just a matter of days. However, I always thought your article was quite non-committal and rather vague on the issue of who would win in November. Although judging by your forum comments your confidence in a Clinton win strengthened.

I am not clear how you could come away with the idea your prediction would not be listed when we communicated back in September. You were very clear you wanted your name added to the list of Clinton win predictions despite my caution about its relevance.

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
The problem is that in that prediction I said that I was thinking Clinton would win "with great uncertainty" when above he says that he excluded predictions that had caveats as he states:


Quote:
-Predictions which are not definitive and couched in caveats have been excluded.


Yes I only added this criteria in the last week or so. Since the election several people have contacted me to be added to the list. But I have rejected at least one from a Vedic astrologer as it seems couched in numerous caveats. Frankly, I have been rather overwhelmed at the volume of predictions that have come to light with over ninety listed. So I have decided to review all the predictions listed. Your quite right that your predictions is very non-committal to be listed at all and I have therefore now removed it along with a few other listings for various reasons as I have toughened up the listing criteria.

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
It's true that I told Mark that I felt more certain having done more research into Clinton's biography but that I also expected the race to tighten into early November. I still think her birth time fits an 8:00 am placement of profections and zodiacal releasing much more convincingly (using tropical) than any of the other explanations I've seen so far. But I have to question just what it is we think we're measuring when Trump wins the electoral college and Clinton the popular vote? I think that comparing 2 nativities to see who wins is at the wrong level of analysis.


Well its true this was only one of 5 elections IN US history where the popular vote was at odds with the result in the electoral college. But ultimately, the US is constitutionally a republic not a popular democracy. Unlike just about every other democracy in the world the US has always selected it Presidents due to the electoral college not the popular vote.

Your question on whether nativities can actually predict an outcome like this is quite a profound question. Of course numerous astrologers predicted Trump’s victory largely on the strength of his nativity and progressions and transits. Kudos to those getting it right but does this make them a modern day equivalent of Nostradamus as some seem to be suggesting or simply the recipients of an element of luck here? Is natal eminence and good transits and progressions enough? Didn’t a series of global transits provide the catalyst for Trump’s natal potential to find expression? Certainly, some predicting a Trump victory took account of this but from the content of their predictions the majority did not.

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:

Do we have any right to claim certainty if we also claim that the election will be close? I admit that I cannot find any rational or astrological technique that would allow me to do so. In the Hellenistic
I'd texts, when a predomination is uncertain between the lights, it's said to default to the ascendant / the star of Hermes (a planet famously known to go both ways) to make the decision. So which chart would we use now? The electoral college meeting on Mercury Rx December 19th?


This does seem to have been amongst the closest of US elections and comes in 3rd closest ever I think. Perhaps in future astrologers might be more cautious and adopt the methodology of weather forecasters who express predictions on a percentage basis rather than a binary black and white certainty? The American astrologer William Stickevers who was confidently predicting a Trump win on mundane astrology Facebook groups told me he only thought Trump had a 55% chance of winning just before the election.

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
I think that in the future if Mark does this again, that a 3rd category should be included for those who say the election is too close to call. In the future I won't be pressed by others to make a call if I think it's going to be too close again.


Not sure I want to take this on again! Chris Brennan has said in his recent podcast this is really something astrological associations should be funding and I agree. It shouldn’t be left to individual astrologers to be selecting predictions. Selection criteria should ideally be decided by a committee of astrologers to make the process as impartial as possible.

In my list for the UK Brexit election I created a third grouping that listed several astro commentaries which didn’t come down on a clear prediction. But in the US presidential election there were relatively few non-committal pieces suggesting the election was not possible to call. Considering the astrological fall out from the 2016 election I suspect more astrologers will hedge their bets in 2020.

Mark
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Last edited by Mark on Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
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zoidsoft



Joined: 10 Feb 2006
Posts: 944
Location: Pulaski, NY

Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 2:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark,

I was quite happy that you eventually added me to the Clinton win list, but you did it after the election was over. I was monitoring it for some time.

The problem is that people thought that I was in the landslide win category because of the way you listed me when I told you in a private email that it was going to tighten and be close at the end. It's misleading of my position.
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zoidsoft



Joined: 10 Feb 2006
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Location: Pulaski, NY

Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 2:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another issue... I just went back to check those PM's I sent you in my sent box and see that they're now gone. Did you delete them?
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Deb
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Joined: 11 Oct 2003
Posts: 4130
Location: England

Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Curtis - Mark doesn't have the ability to delete or mess about with anyones messaging system - neither do I. I think the system only allows you to archive a certain number of messages and once that is reached older messages are deleted, so that might be what has happened to your messages.

Jac - please understand that Mark is the moderator here and I fully endorse the remarks he made to you. My earlier comments reminded you of the necessity to keep your posts astrological in focus. I removed the earlier remarks after you had seen them because they are not of interest to anyone who wants to follow this thread in the hope of finding interesting comments on astrological technique.
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zoidsoft



Joined: 10 Feb 2006
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Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deb wrote:
Curtis - Mark doesn't have the ability to delete or mess about with anyones messaging system - neither do I. I think the system only allows you to archive a certain number of messages and once that is reached older messages are deleted, so that might be what has happened to your messages.


I still have messages dating back to 2014 and my correspondence with Mark would have been around Sept this year. So either they disappeared somehow or I'm not remembering how I contacted Mark. I could swear it was using this forum though, but I'll try checking FB.
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Mark
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Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark,

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
I was quite happy that you eventually added me to the Clinton win list, but you did it after the election was over. I was monitoring it for some time.


That is not correct Curtis. Your article was listed along with several others ages before the election. If I had failed to put your piece up as you claim I would fully understand your frustration. But its simply not the case. I am totally mystified how you can be claiming something so grossly inaccurate. I am beginning to feel you have your own personal agenda here and are seeking to discredit me for some reason over this issue. Perhaps your theory being that by making a massive fuss over this other astrologers will recognise how non-committal your article was.

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
The problem is that people thought that I was in the landslide win category because of the way you listed me when I told you in a private email that it was going to tighten and be close at the end. It's misleading of my position.


And exactly how is that my fault Curtis? Predictions on a Clinton win came in all varieties. If people were too lazy to look at what you actually wrote that was surely their problem.

And rather than enter into an attack on my approach here and on Chris Brennan's blog all you had to do was request removal from the list privately.

I did remove all reference to you earlier this week. I have still not circulated my finalised list on numerous astrological groups which I intend to do. Unfortunately, a few people saw the draft version and circulated it around on FB before it was ready. I dont have my own site at present and that is a major downside of using Skyscript for something like this. If I do anything like this again it will be on my own blog where only the finalised version is released.

Keep in mind I have been trying to keep up with predictions all over the astrological community. I have looked at over 100 and about ninety are currently listed. After sticking your piece up I gave it no further thought.

Fair enough you thought the race would be tight. I fully accept that. But ultimately, all I focused on was whether people predicted a Clinton or Trump win. Sorting out the nuances of dozens of separate predictions to suit each individual astrologer was never practical in this kind of exercise.

I am sorry if you feel this has had a negative impact on your astrological reputation. But that is always the risk you take when you make a public prediction.

From what I can see the astrologers really getting the flak are the 12 astrologers that sat on the two ISAR panels which unanimously predicted a Clinton win.

The whole issue about those who predicted a Clinton win were somehow suggesting a landslide in their predictions is a fallacious meme put out by William Stickevers all over Facebook. I challenged William on this repeatedly before the election and pointed out the vast majority of astrologers just focused on a likely winner not the electoral scale of any victory. But he has continued to promote this myth in the face of the evidence to the contrary.

Mark
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zoidsoft



Joined: 10 Feb 2006
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Location: Pulaski, NY

Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
Mark,

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
I was quite happy that you eventually added me to the Clinton win list, but you did it after the election was over. I was monitoring it for some time.


That is not correct Curtis. Your article was listed along with many others ages before the election. If I had failed to put your piece up as you claim I would fully understand your frustration. But its simply not the case. I am totally mystified how you can be claiming something so grossly inaccurate. I am beginning to feel you have your own agenda here and are seeking to discredit me for some reason over this issue.

Zoidsoft wrote:
Quote:
The problem is that people thought that I was in the landslide win category because of the way you listed me when I told you in a private email that it was going to tighten and be close at the end. It's misleading of my position.


And exactly how is that my fault Curtis? Predictions on a Clinton win came all in all varieties. If people were too lazy to look at what you actually wrote that was surely their problem.


This is getting blown out of proportion. I just wanted to clarify that my article was not in the definitive win for Clinton category. I checked a few times before the election and about the only way I can explain not seeing it is if my browser cache wasn't cleared properly. But then there's the missing emails that I tried to reference that aren't here (If you deleted them from your own box, does it delete in the other box as well? I've noticed this odd behavior that seems unique to Skyscript where the outbox and sent box seem to be reference linked depending upon whether the recipient checks their email and wonder if deleted emails were also reference linked?).

I didn't really care that much about it, just one name in a long list, but I was beginning to wonder if you had an agenda after it seemed like I was being ignored then it appeared after the election was over under the list. I thought about contacting you before the election to remind you and assumed you were just too busy. I let it slide for a couple of weeks, but it kept nagging at me in the back of my mind, but had more important things to do. Now I'm temporarily caught up, but I don't see any point of pursuing this any further. I'm sorry if you have bad feelings over it.
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